Watching the World: Tehran's impotence exposed

Jan. 30, 2012
Gulf Arabs are up in arms over attempts by Iran to drag them into its growing confrontation with the international community over nuclear weapons, as noted by one eminent Arab commentator.

Gulf Arabs are up in arms over attempts by Iran to drag them into its growing confrontation with the international community over nuclear weapons, as noted by one eminent Arab commentator.

"I think that the Iranian government is disappointed that oil prices have not soared as a result of the successive sanctions imposed by the US and Europe against it," said Abdul Rahman Al-Rashid, general manager of the Dubai-based al-Arabiya TV.

Iran was hoping for an upsurge in oil prices that could force its rivals to retract their boycott, especially amid a nervous market still reeling from disruptions in Libya.

Iran was disappointed that sanctions did not raise prices and turned to reiterating old threats and impotent ones at that.

"It made public threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, the main passageway for a quarter of the world's oil exports, but prices did not go up," said Al-Rashid.

Warnings disregarded

"Iran publicly warned Saudi Arabia…against attempting to compensate for any expected shortfall in oil availability after the world stops buying Iranian produce," said Al-Rashid, noting that "such warnings did not raise the oil prices."

Al-Rashid, citing his own sources, said, "Iranian authorities even dared to send their boats, with men armed with machine guns on board, to waters in close proximity to Saudi oil-producing regions."

But still prices did not rise. In fact, according to Al-Rashid, "Even if Iran committed a foolish military act, going beyond its warnings and provocations, there would still be sufficient oil-production capabilities to meet the market demands."

Even if Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz, the Saudi writer said, the majority of Saudi oil could be transported and exported via pipelines to the Red Sea, and Emirati oil could pass through the Arabian Sea.

Anger unjustified

"Even if prices went up, this would only be a short-lived, temporary outcome, given the oil-producing states' additional capabilities," he said, adding that the Iranians have no business threatening gulf producers.

"Iran has no right to be angry with other oil producers making up for any shortfall," Al-Rashid said. "OPEC-with Iran included among its member states-stipulates total production quotas, and any member can fill a gap when one appears."

More ominously, Al-Rashid wrote that Iran is attempting to drag the oil-producing countries, especially the gulf states, into its planned game to disrupt the international market.

"Yet the gulf states will not allow this, regardless of whether Iran issues official warnings or sends its warships to the gulf shores," he said, underling his key point: "Iran should solve its own problems and bear all the consequences of its decisions."

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