New views of oil supply

Ten years ago, analysts ran fevers over expectations about global oil consumption. A forecast would appear from, say, the US Energy Information Administration indicating oil demand in 2020 at 119.6 million b/d, and many of them would pop their safety valves. They'd see no way to meet demand of 120 million b/d of oil when supplying the 76-million-b/d market of the day already strained the system. Replacing production from a depleting resource was difficult enough. How could anyone expect the world to offset 20 years' worth of depletion and also produce 44 million b/d more? Part of the answer was that it wouldn't have to do so. Difficulty of supply relative to demand always raises price, wh...

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