Light, sweet crude for November and December each dropped slightly more than $1/bbl Oct. 2 on the New York market. Analysts said prices fell as investors questioned the adherence level of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to its production-cut targets.
A Reuters survey of analysts put OPEC’s September output at 32.86 million b/d, up from the previous month and above OPEC’s production cap of just below 32 million b/d. The 32.86 million b/d signals declining compliance.
Libya and Nigeria are exempt from existing production-cut targets, which extend through March 2018.
Bloomberg did its own survey, also showing OPEC’s oil production rose in September with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Libya increasing production.
Total OPEC production in September was 32.83 million b/d, up 120,000 b/d from August, Bloomberg’s survey said, putting the cartel’s compliance at 82%, down from 88% in August.
Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported its oil price poll of 15 investment banks at the end of September forecast Brent crude, the international benchmark, will average $53/bbl in 2018. That forecast was down $1 from the August survey.
The banks told WSJ that they expect the US benchmark will average $50/bbl in 2018, also down $1 from the previous survey.
Energy prices
The November light, sweet crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange decreased $1.09 to settle at $50.58/bbl on Oct. 2. The December contract dropped $1.05 to settle at $50.90/bbl.
The NYMEX natural gas price for November dropped 9¢ to a rounded $2.92/MMbtu. The Henry Hub cash gas price fell 8¢ to $2.81/MMbtu.
Heating oil for November was down 4¢ to a rounded $1.76/gal. The NYMEX reformulated gasoline blendstock for October fell by nearly 4¢ to a rounded $1.55/gal on Oct. 2.
The Brent crude contract for December on London’s ICE dropped 67¢ to $56.12/bbl. The January contract was down 70¢ to $55.89/bbl. The gas oil contract for October was $531/tonne, down $17.50.
OPEC’s basket of crudes for Oct. 2 was $54.61/bbl, down 59¢.
Contact Paula Dittrick at [email protected].
