The US will be a net oil exporter by 2023, predict analysts at PIRA Energy Group.
When oil trade with Canada is excluded, that status arrives in 2019, according to PIRA Associate Director Paul Sheldon and Director Shin Kim.
Rising output of liquids from shale accounts for the swing in US oil trade.
Net oil imports—total liquids supply minus oil demand—peaked in 2005 at 12.5 million b/d and will fall to 4.4 million b/d this year, Sheldon and Kim predict.
During that period, total US liquids production has increased by 87% to 15.6 million b/d.
The analysts point out that the US remains a large net importer of crude oil. Of more than 7 million b/d of net crude imports this year, 3 million b/d comes from Canada and 2 million b/d each from Latin America and the Middle East.
Meanwhile, net exports of gasoline, diesel, kerosine jet fuel, and fuel oil will reach 900,000 b/d this year, while NGL exports reach 1.4 million b/d.
The analysts expect US net oil exports to reach 3.3 million b/d 2031.
