US light, sweet crude prices gained slightly on Aug. 11 but settled below $49/bbl and ended the week down 1.53%—the second consecutive weekly decline. At its highest point last week, the US benchmark briefly topped $50/bbl on Aug. 10 but settled well below that.
In early Aug. 14 trading, light, sweet oil futures prices edged down on a strengthening US dollar. The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index, a comparison of the dollar against a basket of other currencies, rose 0.23% as of early Aug. 14.
Traders buy and sell oil in dollars so a strengthening dollar makes the US benchmark oil price more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Analysts said Aug. 11 oil prices increased modestly after the International Energy Agency issued a monthly report in which it revised some of its earlier data. IEA cut its world oil demand estimate for previous years and its forecast going into 2018.
Supplies in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries dropped slightly during the second quarter but remained 219 million bbl above the 5-year average.
IEA also said demand growth in 2017 beat previous expectations so far. IEA increased its growth estimate for 2017 to 1.5 million b/d, including very strong data for the year’s second quarter when demand increased by 1.8 million b/d (OGJ Online, Aug. 11, 2017).
But by Dec. 31, IEA forecast world oil demand at 33 million b/d compared with a previous estimate of 33.6 million b/d.
The revised demand estimate is “only marginally above the current level” of output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Commerzbank analysts said in a research note. “There is hardly likely to be any further inventory reduction” during the second half.
Energy prices
The September light, sweet crude contract on NYMEX gained 23¢ on Aug. 11 to settle at $48.82/bbl. The October contract was up 22¢ to close at $48.94/bbl.
The NYMEX natural gas price for September edged down less than a penny to remain at $2.98/MMbtu. The Henry Hub cash gas price rose 4¢ to $2.91/MMbtu.
Heating oil for September was up less than 1¢ to remain at a rounded $1.63/gal. Reformulated gasoline stock for oxygenate blending for September gained 1¢ to a rounded $1.61/gal.
The Brent crude contract for October on London’s ICE was up 20¢ to $52.10/bbl. The November contract also was up 16¢ to $51.94/bbl. The August gas oil contract fell $4 to $482.50/tonne.
OPEC’s basket of crudes on Aug. 11 was $49.37/bbl, down 33¢.
Contact Paula Dittrick at [email protected].
