Light, sweet crude oil prices for August and September gained by about $1/bbl on July 3 but trading was light on the US July 4 holiday.
Oil prices have gained for about a week but Citigroup analysts said negative sentiment about the oil markets could be hard to change in the short term.
Citigroup has revised its price outlooks, saying the chances that Brent crude futures will climb to $60/bbl by Dec. 31 are less than 50%, down from its previous estimate of a 65% chance. Meanwhile, Brent settled above $49/bbl on July 3.
Goldman Sachs also cut its 3-month forecast for the US oil futures benchmark to $47.50/bbl, down from its earlier forecast of $55/bbl.
Goldman Sachs analysts said there is a “shrinking window of time” for ample world oil inventories to fall before members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are tempted to produce more oil.
Currently OPEC has a production-cut target of 1.2 million b/d through first-quarter 2018. Some non-OPEC producers, including Russia, agreed to production cuts of their own to add another 600,000 b/d to the total target. Libya and Nigeria are exempt from the production-cut targets.
Energy prices
The August light, sweet crude contract on NYMEX gained $1.03 on July 3 to settle at $47.07/bbl. The September contract was up $1 to close at $47.29/bbl.
The NYMEX natural gas price for August declined 8¢ to a rounded $2.95/MMbtu. The Henry Hub cash gas price was unavailable.
Heating oil futures for August added nearly 3¢ to a rounded $1.51/gal. Reformulated gasoline stock for oxygenate blending for August gained 2¢ to $1.53/gal.
The Brent crude contract for September on London’s ICE increased 91¢ to $49.68/bbl while the October contract climbed 95¢ to $49.99/bbl. The July gas oil contract gained $12.50 to $449/tonne.
OPEC’s basket of crudes on July 3 was $46.89/bbl, up $1.26.
Contact Paula Dittrick at [email protected].