Colombian peace deal historic but doesn’t ensure stability

Aug. 26, 2016
Colombians will vote Oct. 2 on an agreement between their government and a guerrilla group to end a conflict that has disrupted the country, including its oil and gas industry, for 52 years.

Colombians will vote Oct. 2 on an agreement between their government and a guerrilla group to end a conflict that has disrupted the country, including its oil and gas industry, for 52 years.

The government, led by President Juan Manuel Santos, and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) on Aug. 24 announced a final agreement ending hostilities that have killed an estimated 260,000 people and displaced 6.9 million.

The parties have been negotiating since 2012 in Havana. Despite a FARC ceasefire that began in July 2015, attacks on oil and gas facilities have continued.

Colombia produces about 1 million b/d of crude and other liquids. The US Energy Information Administration estimates pipeline attacks lowered production last year by 41,000 b/d.

Some disruption might have been the work of Colombia’s second-largest insurgent group, the National Liberation Army (ELN). That group and the government announced last March that they had agreed to hold peace talks in Quito, Ecuador. But ELN militancy continues.

The breakthrough with FARC came with agreement on implementation. The parties already had agreed on other negotiating points.

FARC’s 7,200 fighters now will move into 23 areas for monitoring by United Nations observers. They are to disarm within 180 days of their arrival in those areas, called concentration zones.

While the peace deal is historic, it doesn’t ensure stability.

It has opponents resistant to amnesty for the rebels. They include Alvaro Uribe, who as president during 2002-10 weakened FARC with a military campaign.

Also, some FARC militants might migrate to the ELN or other rebel groups.

And the deal might not end attacks on oil equipment if the other groups stay active.

If the deal holds, kidnappings by FARC, including of oil workers, should end.

Until the government makes peace with the ELN, however, that menace won’t disappear.

Negotiations, if they happen, will be messy and already face an impasse.

The government insists that the sporadic ELN renounce kidnapping. The group ominously refuses to negotiate with preconditions in place.

(From the subscription area of www.ogj.com, posted Aug. 26, 2016; author’s e-mail: [email protected])