IEA: Oil demand growth forecast lowered on downgraded economic outlook

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2014 has been curtailed since last month’s report to a more modest 1 million b/d, according to the International Energy Agency’s most recent Oil Market Report.

The revision was primarily due to lower-than-expected second-quarter deliveries and downgraded macroeconomic outlook from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Demand growth is forecast to accelerate in 2015 to 1.3 million b/d as the economy improves.

Global oil supply in July averaged 93 million b/d, up 230,000 b/d from a month ago and 840,000 b/d from a year ago.

With a boost from Saudi Arabia and a tentative recovery in Libyan output more than offsetting losses in Iraq, Iran, and Nigeria, production from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries rose by 300,000 b/d to 30.44 million b/d in July, a 5-month high.

The “call” on OPEC crude and stock change is expected to average 30.8 million b/d in this year’s fourth quarter. The call is set at 29.9 million b/d for all of 2015, down from the 30 million b/d estimate for 2014.

Non-OPEC production in July fell 170,000 b/d month-on-month to 56.2 million b/d, on declines in Brazil, Mexico, and Russia, as well as attacks that took down output in Colombia and Yemen, IEA said.

OECD industry stocks in June posted their sixth consecutive monthly build, rising 13.8 million bbl to 2,671 million bbl at month’s end, the highest level since September 2013.

“Inventories’ deficit to the 5-year average narrowed to 42.1 million bbl from 52 million bbl at end-May. The deficit now stands at its smallest since October 2013 and remains centered in OECD Europe,” IEA said.

Diverging trends of global refinery activity were observed in June, with a counter-seasonal fall in OECD throughput contrasting with record-high runs in several key non-OECD countries, according to the latest OMR.

“OECD refinery crude oil intake plunged by 1.9 million b/d from a year earlier. In contrast, throughput levels in China, Brazil, Russia, and Saudi Arabia hit record highs. Global refinery runs are now estimated at 76.5 million b/d for second quarter 2014, up 1.3 million b/d year-on-year, and 0.2 million b/d higher than in last month’s report,” IEA said.

As plentiful supply and weak OECD refinery runs in June offset concerns about escalating conflicts in Iraq, Libya, and Ukraine, crude prices fell in July and early August.

On hopes that US air strikes would lower disruption risks in Iraq, ICE Brent was below $105/bbl at the time of report writing, $10/bbl off the mid-June peak. NYMEX WTI was about $98/bbl.

Related Articles

State approves Shell’s plan for US Appalachian ethylene plant

06/23/2015 Pennsylvania’s Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has approved a permit allowing Royal Dutch Shell PLC subsidiary Shell Chemical LP to pr...

API relaunches ‘Vote4Energy’ program leading up to 2016 elections

06/23/2015 The American Petroleum Institute wants US voters to elect candidates in the 2016 elections who support broader development of the nation’s abundant...

Newly formed Quadrant Energy to decommission East Spar buoy

06/23/2015 One of the first intentions of newly formed Quadrant Energy Pty. Ltd., Perth, is to remove the East Spar field navigation, communication, and contr...

MARKET WATCH: Brent gains modestly on strengthening European economic indicators

06/23/2015 US crude oil futures for July delivery gained 7¢ on the New York market in June 22 trading as that month’s contract expired, and Brent crude oil fo...

US Forest Service withdraws proposed groundwater directive

06/22/2015 The US Forest Service withdrew a proposed directive on groundwater resource management on June 19, and announced it would hold public discussions o...

Williams rejects unsolicited bid from Energy Transfer Equity

06/22/2015 Williams Cos. Inc., Tulsa, has rejected an unsolicited all-equity acquisition proposal valued at $53.1 billion from Dallas-based Energy Transfer Eq...

WPX Energy adds to acreage in Gallup oil play

06/22/2015 WPX Energy Inc., Tulsa, has added to its San Juan Gallup acreage in New Mexico with the purchase of another 14,300 net acres from an undisclosed se...

Lundin appoints president, chief executive officer

06/22/2015 Lundin Petroleum AB reported that its board has appointed Alex Schneiter as president and chief executive officer following Ashley Heppenstall’s de...

MARKET WATCH: NYMEX, Brent crude oil price fall on Greece’s debt concerns

06/22/2015 US crude oil futures for July delivery dropped back below $60/bbl on the New York market in June 19 trading, and analysts said concerns over Greece...
White Papers

Three Tips to Improve Safety in the Oil Field

Working oil fields will always be tough work with inherent risks. There’s no getting around that. Ther...
Sponsored by

Pipeline Integrity: Best Practices to Prevent, Detect, and Mitigate Commodity Releases

Commodity releases can have catastrophic consequences, so ensuring pipeline integrity is crucial for p...
Sponsored by

AVEVA’s Digital Asset Approach - Defining a new era of collaboration in capital projects and asset operations

There is constant, intensive change in the capital projects and asset life cycle management. New chall...
Sponsored by

Transforming the Oil and Gas Industry with EPPM

With budgets in the billions, timelines spanning years, and life cycles extending over decades, oil an...
Sponsored by

Asset Decommissioning in Oil & Gas: Transforming Business

Asset intensive organizations like Oil and Gas have their own industry specific challenges when it com...
Sponsored by

Squeezing the Green: How to Cut Petroleum Downstream Costs and Optimize Processing Efficiencies with Enterprise Project Portfolio Management Solutions

As the downstream petroleum industry grapples with change in every sector and at every level, includin...
Sponsored by

7 Steps to Improve Oil & Gas Asset Decommissioning

Global competition and volatile markets are creating a challenging business climate for project based ...
Sponsored by

The impact of aging infrastructure in process manufacturing industries

Process manufacturing companies in the oil and gas, utilities, chemicals and natural resource industri...
Sponsored by
Available Webcasts


OGJ's Midyear Forecast 2015

When Fri, Jul 10, 2015

This webcast is to be presented by OGJ Editor Bob Tippee and Senior Economic Editor Conglin Xu.  They will summarize the Midyear Forecast projections in key categories, note important changes from January’s forecasts, and examine reasons for the adjustments.

register:WEBCAST


Predictive Analytics in your digital oilfield - Optimize Production Yield and Reduce Operational Costs

When Tue, Jul 7, 2015

Putting predictive analytics to work in your oilfield can help you anticipate failures, plan and schedule work in advance, eliminate emergency work and catastrophic failures, and at the same time you can optimize working capital and improve resource utilization.  When you apply analytic capabilities to critical production assets it is possible to reduce non-productive time and increase your yield.

Learn how IBM's analytics capabilities can be applied to critical production assets with the goal of reducing non-productive time, increasing yield and reducing operations costs.

register:WEBCAST



On Demand

Cognitive Solutions for Upstream Oil and Gas

Fri, Jun 12, 2015

The oil & gas sector is under pressure on all sides. Reserves are limited and it’s becoming increasingly expensive to find and extract new resources. Margins are already being squeezed in an industry where one wrong decision can cost millions. Analyzing data used in energy exploration can save millions of dollars as we develop ways to predict where and how to extract the world’s massive energy reserves.

This session with IBM Subject Matter Experts will discuss how IBM Cognitive Solutions contribute to the oil and gas industry using predictive analytics and cognitive computing, as well as real time streaming for exploration and drilling.

register:WEBCAST


The Alternative Fuel Movement: Four Need-to-Know Excise Tax Complexities

Thu, Jun 4, 2015

Discussion on how to approach, and ultimately embrace, the alternative fuel market by pulling back the veil on excise tax complexities. Taxes may be an aggravating part of daily operations, but their accuracy is crucial in your path towards business success.

register:WEBCAST


Emerson Micro Motion Videos

Careers at TOTAL

Careers at TOTAL - Videos

More than 600 job openings are now online, watch videos and learn more!

 

Click Here to Watch

Other Oil & Gas Industry Jobs

Search More Job Listings >>
Stay Connected