Oil production in Canada will increase at an average rate of 175,000 b/d/year through 2030—but not to as high a level as was forecast a year ago, reports the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.
Output from oil sands dominates CAPP’s projection, rising from 1.9 million b/d in 2013 to 2.3 million b/d in 2015, 3.2 million b/d in 2020, 4.1 million b/d in 2025, and 4.8 million b/d in 2030.
Last year, CAPP forecast oil sands production in 2030 of 5.2 million b/d. The difference between that outlook and the new one relates to uncertainty about major projects late in the forecast period.
“The difference between the two forecasts later in the period primarily reflects increasing uncertainty regarding project timing related to cost competitiveness and capital availability,” the association says. “These impacts are more evident in proposed oil sands projects near the end of the forecast period.”
In the new forecast, total Canadian oil production increases to 6.4 million b/d in 2030 from 3.5 million b/d in 2013.
CAPP forecasts an increase in conventional production in western Canada to 1.5 million b/d in 2020-30 from 1.3 million b/d in 2013.
Production in eastern Canada, according to CAPP, will average 200,000 b/d through 2015, rise to 300,000 b/d in 2020, and ease to 200,000 b/d in 2025 and 100,000 in 2030.
But three recent discoveries in the Flemish Pass basin “may lead to increased projections for the region in future CAPP forecasts,” the association notes.