Sener: Mexico’s gas imports from US see rapid near-term increase

Higher natural gas demand from Mexico’s industrial and electric power sectors coupled with increased US natural gas production has resulted in a doubling of US gas pipeline exports to Mexico during 2009-13. The country’s Secretaria de Energia de Mexico (Sener) forecasts that US pipeline exports to Mexico will reach 3.8 bcfd in 2018, more than double the 1.8 bcfd of US pipeline exports to Mexico in 2013.

The forecast was based on sustained higher demand from Mexico’s electric power businesses in the country’s northern and interior regions, which accounts for nearly three quarters of the projected growth in Mexico’s gas consumption during 2012-27. Growth sharply accelerates over the near term but continues through 2027, when consumption by electric power sector reaches 58% of total gas consumption compared with 47% in 2012.

Meantime, consumption from private and independently operated power plants is expected to contribute to most of the growth, rising an average of 7.9%/year— to 4.9 bcfd in 2027 from 1.6 bcfd in 2012. By contrast, gas consumption from plants operated by national energy company CFE is forecast to rise just 0.4%/year— to 1.2 bcfd in 2027 from 1.1 bcfd in 2012, said Sener.

Mexico’s projected rise in gas consumption occurs in each of its five market regions: northeast, northwest, interior-west, interior, and south-southeast. According to Sener, increasing demand is particularly strong in the northern and interior regions of the country.

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