IEA: Downside risk presents on non-OPEC oil production outlook

In April, continued tensions between Russia and Ukraine, supply outages in Libya and northern Iraq, and increased crude buying as refiners come out of maintenance turnarounds combined to offset the impact of seasonally weaker demand and pushed up oil prices marginally, the International Energy Agency said in its most recent Oil Market Report.

In this month’s report, IEA forecast worldwide oil demand to average 92.8 million b/d in 2014, 65,000 b/d higher than projected in last month’s report. The revision was based on raised historical non-OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) demand and higher estimates for OECD deliveries across this year’s first quarter, partially offset by the International Monetary Fund’s curbed macroeconomic outlook.

In the latest quarterly World Economic Outlook published in April, IMF expects the global economy to grow by 3.6% in 2014, up from 3% in 2013 but below 3.7% assumed in January’s WEO.

IEA’s assessment this year’s first-quarter global demand has been raised by 190,000 b/d to 91.3 million b/d, reflecting mostly stronger-than-expected demand in the US in February and other upward revisions for Japan, Germany, and the UK.

After reaching 5-month lows in March, crude oil supply from countries of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries flirted near the 30 million b/d mark again in April, led by higher output from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Algeria.

Overall non-OPEC production is now expected to increase by about 1.5 million b/d for 2014 as a whole, roughly 100,000 b/d below last month’s forecast and 400,000 b/d lower than projected last October. Downside risk is present for non-OPEC production forecast, principally due to continued political, technical, and operational issues, IEA noted in the report.

“South Sudan and Colombia saw their 2014 outlook downgraded due to civil conflict, pipeline attacks, and issues with local communities. Kazakhstan and Canada also saw reduced output forecasts as technical problems and heavier-than-expected maintenance took their toll on supply,” IEA said.

OECD industry inventories slipped by 2.5 million bbl in March to 2.57 billion bbl, broadly in line with seasonal trends. The deficit of inventories vs. 5-year average levels remained at a wide 110 million bbl. Refined products accounted for 98 million bbl of the deficit while crude stood at a 7 million bbl shortfall.

Related Articles

BHI: US rig count drops 22 units in 20th straight week of losses

04/24/2015 The US drilling rig count fell 22 units to 932 rigs working during the week ended Apr. 24, marking the 20th consecutive week of declines, according...

Odyssey Pipeline transports production from Delta House

04/24/2015 A joint venture of Shell Pipeline Co. LP and Genesis Energy LP reported that its Odyssey Pipeline System transported the first crude oil production...

USGS report aims to improve quake prediction from induced seismicity

04/24/2015 The US Geological Survey issued a report with preliminary outlines of models to predict severity of ground tremors in areas where sharp seismicity ...

SandRidge names senior vice-president, production

04/24/2015 SandRidge Energy Inc., Oklahoma City, has appointed John Suter as senior vice-president, production, effective Apr. 27. Most recently, Suter worked...

Antin Infrastructure Partners buys BP’s interest in CATS

04/24/2015 Antin Infrastructure Partners SAS, Paris, has agreed to acquire BP PLC’s Central Area Transmission System (CATS) business in the UK North Sea for $...

Ichthys begins CPF, FPSO module lifts

04/24/2015 Contractors for the Ichthys fields in the Browse basin have completed the first topside module lifts onto the central processing facility and the f...

MARKET WATCH: NYMEX, Brent crude oil prices reach 2015 highs on Yemen strife

04/24/2015 Crude oil futures found support on both New York and London markets in Apr. 23 trading on news of more airstrikes against rebels in Yemen by Saudi ...

MOL agrees to buy Ithaca Petroleum Norge

04/24/2015 MOL Group has committed to drill three exploration wells offshore Norway during 2015-16 under an agreement to buy Ithaca Petroleum Norge from Ithac...

Congressional Republicans see undue restrictions in 2017-22 OCS draft

04/23/2015 Congressional Republicans—led by Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chair Lisa Murkowski (Alas.) and House Natural Resources Committee C...
White Papers

Pipeline Integrity: Best Practices to Prevent, Detect, and Mitigate Commodity Releases

Commodity releases can have catastrophic consequences, so ensuring pipeline integrity is crucial for p...
Sponsored by

AVEVA’s Digital Asset Approach - Defining a new era of collaboration in capital projects and asset operations

There is constant, intensive change in the capital projects and asset life cycle management. New chall...
Sponsored by

Transforming the Oil and Gas Industry with EPPM

With budgets in the billions, timelines spanning years, and life cycles extending over decades, oil an...
Sponsored by

Asset Decommissioning in Oil & Gas: Transforming Business

Asset intensive organizations like Oil and Gas have their own industry specific challenges when it com...
Sponsored by

Squeezing the Green: How to Cut Petroleum Downstream Costs and Optimize Processing Efficiencies with Enterprise Project Portfolio Management Solutions

As the downstream petroleum industry grapples with change in every sector and at every level, includin...
Sponsored by

7 Steps to Improve Oil & Gas Asset Decommissioning

Global competition and volatile markets are creating a challenging business climate for project based ...
Sponsored by

The impact of aging infrastructure in process manufacturing industries

Process manufacturing companies in the oil and gas, utilities, chemicals and natural resource industri...
Sponsored by

What is System Level Thermo-Fluid Analysis?

This paper will explain some of the fundamentals of System Level Thermo-Fluid Analysis and demonstrate...
Available Webcasts


Cognitive Solutions for Upstream Oil and Gas

When Fri, Jun 12, 2015

The oil & gas sector is under pressure on all sides. Reserves are limited and it’s becoming increasingly expensive to find and extract new resources. Margins are already being squeezed in an industry where one wrong decision can cost millions. Analyzing data used in energy exploration can save millions of dollars as we develop ways to predict where and how to extract the world’s massive energy reserves.

This session with IBM Subject Matter Experts will discuss how IBM Cognitive Solutions contribute to the oil and gas industry using predictive analytics and cognitive computing, as well as real time streaming for exploration and drilling.

register:WEBCAST


The Alternative Fuel Movement: Four Need-to-Know Excise Tax Complexities

When Thu, Jun 4, 2015

Discussion on how to approach, and ultimately embrace, the alternative fuel market by pulling back the veil on excise tax complexities. Taxes may be an aggravating part of daily operations, but their accuracy is crucial in your path towards business success.

register:WEBCAST



On Demand

Prevention, Detection and Mitigation of pipeline leaks in the modern world

Thu, Apr 30, 2015

Preventing, detecting and mitigating leaks or commodity releases from pipelines are a top priority for all pipeline companies. This presentation will look at various aspects related to preventing, detecting and mitigating pipeline commodity releases from a generic and conceptual point of view, while at the same time look at the variety of offerings available from Schneider Electric to meet some of the requirements associated with pipeline integrity management. 

register:WEBCAST


Global LNG: Adjusting to New Realities

Fri, Mar 20, 2015

Oil & Gas Journal’s March 20, 2015, webcast will look at how global LNG trade will be affected over the next 12-24 months by falling crude oil prices and changing patterns and pressures of demand. Will US LNG production play a role in balancing markets? Or will it add to a growing global oversupply of LNG for markets remote from easier natural gas supply? Will new buyers with marginal credit, smaller requirements, or great need for flexibility begin to look attractive to suppliers? How will high-cost, mega-projects in Australia respond to new construction cost trends?

register:WEBCAST


Emerson Micro Motion Videos

Careers at TOTAL

Careers at TOTAL - Videos

More than 600 job openings are now online, watch videos and learn more!

 

Click Here to Watch

Other Oil & Gas Industry Jobs

Search More Job Listings >>
Stay Connected