EIA: Short-term global oil supplies face uncertainties

Global consumption of petroleum and other liquids will rise an average of 1.3 million b/d in 2014 and 1.4 million b/d in 2015, exceeding 93 billion b/d by second-half 2015, according to the most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook released by the US Energy Information Administration. EIA said global consumption of petroleum and other liquids rose by 1.2 million b/d in 2013, exceeding 91 million b/d by the year’s second half.

Major uncertainties surround its 2014-15 global oil supply outlook, however. These include lingering unplanned global supply disruptions and unknown US oil production growth, which is attributable to upward US onshore supply risk due to drilling technological innovations and downward production risk in the federal Gulf of Mexico because of potential project delays and hurricane or maintenance outages.

Kazakhstan’s Kashagan oil field and North Sea maintenance will also contribute to short-term global supply fluctuations.

EIA estimates US total crude oil production averaged 7.4 million b/d in 2013, and will increase to 8.4 million b/d in 2014 and to 9.2 million b/d in 2015. The US crude oil production forecast for both 2014 and 2015 was revised downward slightly—by 100,000 b/d—from last month’s STEO because of indications that severe weather this winter caused temporary slowdown in completing new wells.

Regarding petroleum prices, EIA notes that Brent crude oil spot prices in January averaged $108-112/bbl for the seventh consecutive month. As non-OPEC supply growth exceeds growth in world consumption, the Brent crude oil price is expected to average $105/bbl and $101/bbl in 2014 and 2015, respectively. EIA expects that West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices will average $93/bbl in 2014 and $90/bbl in 2015.

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