BP energy outlook sees 41% rise in world energy use to 2035

BP PLC’s Energy Outlook 2035, released Jan. 15, forecasts that world energy consumption will increase 41% between 2012 and 2035. Countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, especially China and India, are believed to contribute to virtually all of this growth.

Global energy intensity in 2035 is 36% lower than what it was in 2012, while energy per capita use will increase by 14%.

According to the outlook, all fuels experience growth, with the fastest in renewables (+6.4% p.a.). By 2035, 14% of world electricity is from renewable sources, up from just 5% in 2012. Among fossil fuels, natural gas is fastest (+1.9% p.a.), followed by coal (+1.1% p.a.) and oil (+0.8% p.a.).

Out to 2035, more than a third of global liquids will be supplied by the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. Natural gas supplies will reach nearly 500 bcfd by 2035, of which 20% will be from the US.

US energy production

BP projects that, between 2012 and 2035, US energy production will rise 24%, significantly outpacing consumption growth of just 3%. By 2035, US will be energy self-sufficient by producing 101% of its energy needs, up from 69% in 2005.

Over the forecast period, consumption growth in natural gas (+21%) and renewables in power generation (+277%) offsets large decline in oil (-18%), coal (-12%) and nuclear (-17%) demand.

According to the outlook, natural gas will hold a 35% share of the US energy mix in 2035, replacing oil as the leading fuel in US energy consumption. Oil’s share will fall from 36% to 29%. Fossil fuels still account for 80% of US energy demand in 2035, down from today’s 85%. Renewables in power generation will increase to 8% from 2%.

Rising US production of oil (+37%) and natural gas (+45%) will outpace declines in coal (-20%). Tight oil output will triple to 4.5 million b/d in 2035. Shale gas production should more than double to 65 bcfd, reaching nearly 70% of the total.

European energy outlook

BP’s projections on European energy markets are out to 2030. The region’s energy demand is expected to rise just 5% by 2030, according to the outlook. And the region’s energy intensity is expected to decline 29%.

Demand for fossil fuels declines 7% with losses in oil (-15%) and coal (-33%) overwhelming gains in gas (+26%). Renewable demand expands 180%, rising to 13% of market share by 2030 from 5% in 2011.

European energy production is expected to drop 1%, according to BP’s projection. Production of all fossil fuels will drop, led by oil (-50%), coal (-29%), and gas (-21%). Despite a 4% decline, nuclear power is forecast to overtake gas as the dominant domestic energy source for the region.

Import dependence increases from 46% today to 49% by 2030 and Europe will remain the largest net importer of natural gas in the world.

Chinese energy outlook

During 2012 to 2035, China’s energy production is expected to rise 61% while consumption grows 71%, BP projects. The country’s energy production as a share of consumption is expected to fall to 80% by 2035 from its current 85%, driving import dependence to 20% from 15%. BP expects that China’s share in global demand will rise to 27% by 2035, and China will become the world’s largest energy importer, exceeding Europe.

Among China’s energy mix, coal’s dominance is forecast to decline to 52% in 2035 from 69% today and natural gas is forecast to rise to 12%, while oil’s share is expected to remain unchanged at 18%.

According to the outlook, China will overtake the US as the world’s largest oil consumer by 2027. The country’s oil and gas import dependences will be 76% and 41% in 2035, respectively, up from 57% and 25% in 2012.

Other BRIC countries

By 2035, India’s energy demand growth of 132% will outpace each of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries, BP forecasts. India’s demand for all fossil fuels will rise, led by gas (+183%), oil (+121%), and coal (+108%).

India is expected to become increasingly import-dependent despite its gains in nonfossil fuel production. The country’s oil imports are expected to rise 169%, accounting for more than 60% of the net increase in imports.

Brazil’s energy production as a share of consumption is forecast to rise to 106% by 2035 from 92% today, transforming the country from an energy importer to an exporter. Fossil fuels will account for 54% of Brazilian energy consumption in 2035, compared with a global average of 81%.

Russia will remain the largest net exporter of energy, satisfying 4% of global energy demand by 2035. The outlook forecasts that tight oil production will commence post-2020 and gradually climb to 7% of the country’s total by 2035.

Middle East outlook

The Middle East will remain the world’s largest oil producing region, and its share of global supplies will expand to 34% in 2035 from 32% today, BP forecasts.

By 2035, oil production from the Middle East is expected to expand by 22%. The region will maintain its leading role as the world’s top oil exporter, but the capacity to export is expected to decline, with 55% growth in domestic use through 2035. Its share of interregional exports will remain about 50%.

Related Articles

FourPoint Energy to acquire Anadarko basin assets from Chesapeake

07/02/2015 FourPoint Energy LLC, a privately owned Denver company, plans to acquire oil and gas assets from Chesapeake Energy Corp. subsidiaries Chesapeake Ex...

Puma Energy completes purchase of Murco’s UK refinery, terminals

07/02/2015 Singapore-based Puma Energy Group Pte. has completed its purchase of UK midstream and downstream assets from Murco Petroleum Ltd., a subsidiary of ...

BP to settle federal, state Deepwater Horizon claims for $18.7 billion

07/02/2015 BP Exploration & Production Inc. has agreed in principle to settle all federal and state claims arising from the 2010 Deepwater Horizon inciden...

MARKET WATCH: NYMEX oil prices plummet on crude inventory build, Iran deadline extension

07/02/2015 Oil prices plummeted more than $2/bbl July 1 to settle at a 2-month low on the New York market after a weekly government report showed the first ri...

API to issue recommended practice to address pipeline safety

07/01/2015 The American Petroleum Institute expects to issue a new recommended practice in another few weeks that addresses pipeline safety issues, but the tr...

Shell Midstream Partners takes interest in Poseidon oil pipeline

07/01/2015 Shell Midstream Partners LP has completed its acquisition of 36% equity interest in Poseidon Oil Pipeline Co. LLC from Equilon Enterprises LLC, a s...

MARKET WATCH: Oil prices decline as US crude inventories post first gain in 9 weeks

07/01/2015 Oil prices on July 1 surrendered much of their gains from the day before after the release of a government report showing the first rise in US crud...

FWS issues Shell letter of authorization on Chukchi Sea lease

07/01/2015 The US Fish & Wildlife Service issued Shell Gulf of Mexico Inc. a letter of authorization (LOA) related to the potential disturbance of polar b...

USGS: Water usage for fracturing varies widely across shale plays

07/01/2015 The volume of water required to hydraulically fracture wells varies widely across the country, according to the first national analysis and map of ...
White Papers

Solutions to Financial Distress Resulting from a Weak Oil and Gas Price Environment

The oil and gas industry is in the midst of a prolonged worldwide downturn in commodity prices. While ...
Sponsored by

2015 Global Engineering Information Management Solutions Competitive Strategy Innovation and Leadership Award

The Frost & Sullivan Best Practices Awards recognise companies in a variety of regional and global...
Sponsored by

Three Tips to Improve Safety in the Oil Field

Working oil fields will always be tough work with inherent risks. There’s no getting around that. Ther...
Sponsored by

Pipeline Integrity: Best Practices to Prevent, Detect, and Mitigate Commodity Releases

Commodity releases can have catastrophic consequences, so ensuring pipeline integrity is crucial for p...
Sponsored by

AVEVA’s Digital Asset Approach - Defining a new era of collaboration in capital projects and asset operations

There is constant, intensive change in the capital projects and asset life cycle management. New chall...
Sponsored by

Transforming the Oil and Gas Industry with EPPM

With budgets in the billions, timelines spanning years, and life cycles extending over decades, oil an...
Sponsored by

Asset Decommissioning in Oil & Gas: Transforming Business

Asset intensive organizations like Oil and Gas have their own industry specific challenges when it com...
Sponsored by

Squeezing the Green: How to Cut Petroleum Downstream Costs and Optimize Processing Efficiencies with Enterprise Project Portfolio Management Solutions

As the downstream petroleum industry grapples with change in every sector and at every level, includin...
Sponsored by
Available Webcasts


The Resilient Oilfield in the Internet of Things World

When Tue, Sep 22, 2015

As we hear about the hype surrounding the Internet of Things, the oil and gas industry is questioning what is different than what is already being done. What is new?  Using sensors and connecting devices is nothing new to our mode of business and in many ways the industry exemplifies many principles of an industrial internet of things. How does the Internet of Things impact the oil and gas industry?

Prolific instrumentation and automation digitized the industry and has changed the approach to business models calling for a systems led approach.  Resilient Systems have the ability to adapt to changing circumstances while maintaining their central purpose.  A resilient system, such as Maximo, allows an asset intensive organization to leverage connected devices by merging real-time asset information with other critical asset information and using that information to create a more agile organization.  

Join this webcast, sponsored by IBM, to learn how about Internet of Things capabilities and resilient systems are impacting the landscape of the oil and gas industry.

register:WEBCAST



On Demand

Taking the Headache out of Fuel License and Exemption Certificates: How to Ensure Compliance

Tue, Aug 25, 2015

This webinar, brought to you by Avalara, will detail the challenges of tax document management, as well as recommend solutions for fuel suppliers. You will learn:

-    Why it’s critical to track business partner licenses and exemption documents
-    The four key business challenges of ensuring tax compliance through document management
-    Best practice business processes to minimize exposure to tax errors

register:WEBCAST


Driving Growth and Efficiency with Deep Insights into Operational Data

Wed, Aug 19, 2015

Capitalizing on today’s momentum in Oil & Gas requires operational excellence based on a clear view of what your business data is telling you. Which is why nearly half* of oil and gas companies have deployed SAP HANA or have it on their roadmap.

Join SAP and Red Hat to learn more about using data to drive process improvements and identify new opportunities with the SAP HANA platform running on Red Hat Enterprise Linux. This webinar will also show how your choice of infrastructure impacts the performance of core business applications and your ability to achieve data-driven insights quickly and reliably.

*48% use SAP, http://go.sap.com/solution/industry/oil-gas.html

register:WEBCAST


OGJ's Midyear Forecast 2015

Fri, Jul 10, 2015

This webcast is to be presented by OGJ Editor Bob Tippee and Senior Economic Editor Conglin Xu.  They will summarize the Midyear Forecast projections in key categories, note important changes from January’s forecasts, and examine reasons for the adjustments.

register:WEBCAST


Emerson Micro Motion Videos

Careers at TOTAL

Careers at TOTAL - Videos

More than 600 job openings are now online, watch videos and learn more!

 

Click Here to Watch

Other Oil & Gas Industry Jobs

Search More Job Listings >>
Stay Connected