ExxonMobil forecasts 35% increase in global energy demand by 2040

More-efficient, energy-saving programs and technologies, increased use of natural gas and other less carbon-intensive fuels, and continued development of advanced exploration and production technologies will support a 35% increase in global energy production by 2040, ExxonMobil Corp. said in its latest annual outlook.

Governments also likely will establish policies that effectively put a price on carbon emissions, William M. Colton, ExxonMobil’s vice-president of corporate strategic planning, said as the company released the forecast at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“We’re not saying there will be a carbon tax,” he emphasized. “Although climate policies remain uncertain, we expect governments to try to limit emissions and assign a cost to carbon through their policies.”

Market forces and emerging public policies will continue to have an impact on energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, the forecast said. After decades of growth, it said, worldwide energy-related CO2 emissions are expected to plateau around 2030 before gradually declining toward 2040 despite a steady rise in overall energy use.

Oil and gas will continue to meet about 60% of all energy needs by 2040, the outlook projected. Liquid fuels—gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and fuel oil—will remain the primary transportation choice because of their unique combination of affordability, availability, portability, and high energy density, it said.

Crude oil demand is expended to increase 25%, led by increased commercial transportation activity, the forecast said. It will be met through technology advances that enable deepwater production and development of oil sands and tight oil, it indicated.

Strong gas growth

Natural gas will remain the fastest-growing major fuel source as demand increases by about 65%, according to the outlook. “In North America, [its] abundance is leading to a resurgence of chemical as well as manufacturing industries,” Colton said. “The world has over 200 years of gas supplies.”

Unconventional gas now accounts for 40% of the world’s resource base, and is expected to represent 65% of global gas production growth to 2040, led by North America, he said.

Practically all of the projected demand growth will occur in developing nations attempting to industrialize as already industrialized countries emphasize efficiency, the outlook said. “The greatest source for the energy future is learning how to use it more efficiently,” Colton said.

He said the forecast also reflects the company’s support for free trade. “That sometimes gets lost in the discussion,” he observed. “Whenever you try to expand it, protection concerns begin to come out, but they are usually overshadowed. We hope there will be very robust trade in both crude and products, as well as gas.”

Cohen said the abundant US gas resources give the country a considerable export price advantage, even with high liquefaction and transportation costs, for sales to Pacific customers.

“The LNG world is very competitive,” he observed. “There are a lot of Asian customers, but there also are a lot of producers. If we don’t move ahead with our own export projects, others are ready to fill the gap and move ahead with theirs.”

Contact Nick Snow at nicks@pennwell.com.

Related Articles

Puma Energy completes purchase of Murco’s UK refinery, terminals

07/02/2015 Singapore-based Puma Energy Group Pte. has completed its purchase of UK midstream and downstream assets from Murco Petroleum Ltd., a subsidiary of ...

BP to settle federal, state Deepwater Horizon claims for $18.7 billion

07/02/2015 BP Exploration & Production Inc. has agreed in principle to settle all federal and state claims arising from the 2010 Deepwater Horizon inciden...

MARKET WATCH: NYMEX oil prices plummet on crude inventory build, Iran deadline extension

07/02/2015 Oil prices plummeted more than $2/bbl July 1 to settle at a 2-month low on the New York market after a weekly government report showed the first ri...

API to issue recommended practice to address pipeline safety

07/01/2015 The American Petroleum Institute expects to issue a new recommended practice in another few weeks that addresses pipeline safety issues, but the tr...

Shell Midstream Partners takes interest in Poseidon oil pipeline

07/01/2015 Shell Midstream Partners LP has completed its acquisition of 36% equity interest in Poseidon Oil Pipeline Co. LLC from Equilon Enterprises LLC, a s...

MARKET WATCH: Oil prices decline as US crude inventories post first gain in 9 weeks

07/01/2015 Oil prices on July 1 surrendered much of their gains from the day before after the release of a government report showing the first rise in US crud...

FWS issues Shell letter of authorization on Chukchi Sea lease

07/01/2015 The US Fish & Wildlife Service issued Shell Gulf of Mexico Inc. a letter of authorization (LOA) related to the potential disturbance of polar b...

USGS: Water usage for fracturing varies widely across shale plays

07/01/2015 The volume of water required to hydraulically fracture wells varies widely across the country, according to the first national analysis and map of ...

Case for Keystone XL has grown stronger, TransCanada tells Kerry

06/30/2015 Canada is taking strong steps toward combating climate change, and the proposed Keystone XL pipeline crude oil pipeline remains in the US national ...
White Papers

2015 Global Engineering Information Management Solutions Competitive Strategy Innovation and Leadership Award

The Frost & Sullivan Best Practices Awards recognise companies in a variety of regional and global...
Sponsored by

Three Tips to Improve Safety in the Oil Field

Working oil fields will always be tough work with inherent risks. There’s no getting around that. Ther...
Sponsored by

Pipeline Integrity: Best Practices to Prevent, Detect, and Mitigate Commodity Releases

Commodity releases can have catastrophic consequences, so ensuring pipeline integrity is crucial for p...
Sponsored by

AVEVA’s Digital Asset Approach - Defining a new era of collaboration in capital projects and asset operations

There is constant, intensive change in the capital projects and asset life cycle management. New chall...
Sponsored by

Transforming the Oil and Gas Industry with EPPM

With budgets in the billions, timelines spanning years, and life cycles extending over decades, oil an...
Sponsored by

Asset Decommissioning in Oil & Gas: Transforming Business

Asset intensive organizations like Oil and Gas have their own industry specific challenges when it com...
Sponsored by

Squeezing the Green: How to Cut Petroleum Downstream Costs and Optimize Processing Efficiencies with Enterprise Project Portfolio Management Solutions

As the downstream petroleum industry grapples with change in every sector and at every level, includin...
Sponsored by

7 Steps to Improve Oil & Gas Asset Decommissioning

Global competition and volatile markets are creating a challenging business climate for project based ...
Sponsored by
Available Webcasts


OGJ's Midyear Forecast 2015

When Fri, Jul 10, 2015

This webcast is to be presented by OGJ Editor Bob Tippee and Senior Economic Editor Conglin Xu.  They will summarize the Midyear Forecast projections in key categories, note important changes from January’s forecasts, and examine reasons for the adjustments.

register:WEBCAST


Predictive Analytics in your digital oilfield - Optimize Production Yield and Reduce Operational Costs

When Tue, Jul 7, 2015

Putting predictive analytics to work in your oilfield can help you anticipate failures, plan and schedule work in advance, eliminate emergency work and catastrophic failures, and at the same time you can optimize working capital and improve resource utilization.  When you apply analytic capabilities to critical production assets it is possible to reduce non-productive time and increase your yield.

Learn how IBM's analytics capabilities can be applied to critical production assets with the goal of reducing non-productive time, increasing yield and reducing operations costs.

register:WEBCAST



On Demand

Cognitive Solutions for Upstream Oil and Gas

Fri, Jun 12, 2015

The oil & gas sector is under pressure on all sides. Reserves are limited and it’s becoming increasingly expensive to find and extract new resources. Margins are already being squeezed in an industry where one wrong decision can cost millions. Analyzing data used in energy exploration can save millions of dollars as we develop ways to predict where and how to extract the world’s massive energy reserves.

This session with IBM Subject Matter Experts will discuss how IBM Cognitive Solutions contribute to the oil and gas industry using predictive analytics and cognitive computing, as well as real time streaming for exploration and drilling.

register:WEBCAST


The Alternative Fuel Movement: Four Need-to-Know Excise Tax Complexities

Thu, Jun 4, 2015

Discussion on how to approach, and ultimately embrace, the alternative fuel market by pulling back the veil on excise tax complexities. Taxes may be an aggravating part of daily operations, but their accuracy is crucial in your path towards business success.

register:WEBCAST


Emerson Micro Motion Videos

Careers at TOTAL

Careers at TOTAL - Videos

More than 600 job openings are now online, watch videos and learn more!

 

Click Here to Watch

Other Oil & Gas Industry Jobs

Search More Job Listings >>
Stay Connected