EIA: Household gas spending to rise 13% during 2013-14 heating season

In its most recent Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook, the US Energy Information Administration outlined that it expects US households heating with natural gas to spend an average $679 this winter, up 13% from last winter but still lower than the previous 5-year average. The increase in expenditures reflects a 13.7% rise in gas prices over last winter, with a relatively flat consumption level.

US household expenditures this winter for heating oil, meanwhile, are forecast to average $2,046 compared with $2,092 last winter. This decrease represents a 3% decrease in consumption and a 5% decrease in prices.

Projected expenditure changes from last winter are 9% higher for propane and 2% higher for electricity, according to EIA.

“However,” EIA noted, “fuel expenditures for individual households are highly dependent on local weather conditions, market size, the size and energy efficiency of individual homes and their heating equipment, and thermostat settings.” Forecast temperatures are close to last winter nationally, with the US Northeast about 3% colder and the US West, 3% warmer.

Consumption, production

US crude oil, liquid fuels, and natural gas liquids consumption for this year’s first three quarters averaged 18.69 million b/d, up 0.6% from the same period last year, led by increases in LPG and distillate consumption. Motor gasoline and jet fuel remained relatively flat, reflecting moderate growth in travel activity offset by continued efficiency growth.

US crude oil production is expected to increase to 7.5 million b/d in 2013 and 8.5 million b/d in 2014 from 6.5 million b/d in 2012.

“The continued focus on drilling in tight oil plays in the onshore Williston, Western Gulf, and Permian basins is expected to account for the bulk of forecast production growth over the next 2 years,” EIA said.

EIA expects that gas consumption will average 70 bcfd and 69.4 bcfd in 2013 and 2014, respectively, compared with 69.7 bcfd in 2012. Gas-marketed production, which averaged 69.2 bcfd in 2012, is projected to increase to 70 bcfd in 2013 and to 70.4 bcfd in 2014.

Natural gas pipeline gross imports, which have fallen over the past 5 years, are projected to fall by 0.3 bcfd in 2013 and then remain near 2013 levels in 2014. LNG imports are expected to remain at minimal levels of around 0.4 bcfd in both 2013 and 2014,” EIA said.

Gas prices began increasing last month in anticipation of winter heating demand, averaging $3.62/MMbtu. US regular gasoline retail prices fell to $3.43/gal on Sept. 30 from $3.68/gal on July 22.

Global market

Global liquid fuels consumption is projected to average 90.26 million b/d in 2013 and 91.43 million b/d in 2014, up from 89.29 million b/d in 2012. China, the Middle East, Central & South America, and other countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development account for most of the consumption growth. OECD consumption is expected to decline continuously in 2013 and 2014 due to lower consumption in Europe and Japan.

Non-OPEC liquid fuels production is forecast to increase by 1.5 million b/d in both 2013 and 2014, with North America accounting for the majority of the growth. Projected OPEC liquid fuels production declines by 0.8 million b/d in 2013, reflecting supply outages among some OPEC producers and an overall decrease in Saudi Arabia’s production in response to the increase in non-OPEC supply.

“Overall OPEC crude oil unplanned disruptions in September averaged 2.4 million b/d, an increase of 0.2 million b/d over the previous month attributed solely to Libya,” EIA said.

Brent crude oil spot prices ended September at $108/bbl, down from $117/bbl in early the month. As non-OPEC supply grows, EIA forecasts the Brent crude oil price to average $107/bbl during the fourth quarter of 2013 and $102/bbl in 2014. The forecast WTI crude oil spot price averages $101/bbl during the fourth quarter of 2013 and $96/bbl in 2014.

Contact Conglin Xu at conglinx@ogjonline.com.

Related Articles

FourPoint Energy to acquire Anadarko basin assets from Chesapeake

07/02/2015 FourPoint Energy LLC, a privately owned Denver company, plans to acquire oil and gas assets from Chesapeake Energy Corp. subsidiaries Chesapeake Ex...

Puma Energy completes purchase of Murco’s UK refinery, terminals

07/02/2015 Singapore-based Puma Energy Group Pte. has completed its purchase of UK midstream and downstream assets from Murco Petroleum Ltd., a subsidiary of ...

BP to settle federal, state Deepwater Horizon claims for $18.7 billion

07/02/2015 BP Exploration & Production Inc. has agreed in principle to settle all federal and state claims arising from the 2010 Deepwater Horizon inciden...

MARKET WATCH: NYMEX oil prices plummet on crude inventory build, Iran deadline extension

07/02/2015 Oil prices plummeted more than $2/bbl July 1 to settle at a 2-month low on the New York market after a weekly government report showed the first ri...

API to issue recommended practice to address pipeline safety

07/01/2015 The American Petroleum Institute expects to issue a new recommended practice in another few weeks that addresses pipeline safety issues, but the tr...

Shell Midstream Partners takes interest in Poseidon oil pipeline

07/01/2015 Shell Midstream Partners LP has completed its acquisition of 36% equity interest in Poseidon Oil Pipeline Co. LLC from Equilon Enterprises LLC, a s...

MARKET WATCH: Oil prices decline as US crude inventories post first gain in 9 weeks

07/01/2015 Oil prices on July 1 surrendered much of their gains from the day before after the release of a government report showing the first rise in US crud...

FWS issues Shell letter of authorization on Chukchi Sea lease

07/01/2015 The US Fish & Wildlife Service issued Shell Gulf of Mexico Inc. a letter of authorization (LOA) related to the potential disturbance of polar b...

USGS: Water usage for fracturing varies widely across shale plays

07/01/2015 The volume of water required to hydraulically fracture wells varies widely across the country, according to the first national analysis and map of ...
White Papers

2015 Global Engineering Information Management Solutions Competitive Strategy Innovation and Leadership Award

The Frost & Sullivan Best Practices Awards recognise companies in a variety of regional and global...
Sponsored by

Three Tips to Improve Safety in the Oil Field

Working oil fields will always be tough work with inherent risks. There’s no getting around that. Ther...
Sponsored by

Pipeline Integrity: Best Practices to Prevent, Detect, and Mitigate Commodity Releases

Commodity releases can have catastrophic consequences, so ensuring pipeline integrity is crucial for p...
Sponsored by

AVEVA’s Digital Asset Approach - Defining a new era of collaboration in capital projects and asset operations

There is constant, intensive change in the capital projects and asset life cycle management. New chall...
Sponsored by

Transforming the Oil and Gas Industry with EPPM

With budgets in the billions, timelines spanning years, and life cycles extending over decades, oil an...
Sponsored by

Asset Decommissioning in Oil & Gas: Transforming Business

Asset intensive organizations like Oil and Gas have their own industry specific challenges when it com...
Sponsored by

Squeezing the Green: How to Cut Petroleum Downstream Costs and Optimize Processing Efficiencies with Enterprise Project Portfolio Management Solutions

As the downstream petroleum industry grapples with change in every sector and at every level, includin...
Sponsored by

7 Steps to Improve Oil & Gas Asset Decommissioning

Global competition and volatile markets are creating a challenging business climate for project based ...
Sponsored by
Available Webcasts

On Demand

OGJ's Midyear Forecast 2015

Fri, Jul 10, 2015

This webcast is to be presented by OGJ Editor Bob Tippee and Senior Economic Editor Conglin Xu.  They will summarize the Midyear Forecast projections in key categories, note important changes from January’s forecasts, and examine reasons for the adjustments.

register:WEBCAST


Predictive Analytics in your digital oilfield - Optimize Production Yield and Reduce Operational Costs

Tue, Jul 7, 2015

Putting predictive analytics to work in your oilfield can help you anticipate failures, plan and schedule work in advance, eliminate emergency work and catastrophic failures, and at the same time you can optimize working capital and improve resource utilization.  When you apply analytic capabilities to critical production assets it is possible to reduce non-productive time and increase your yield.

Learn how IBM's analytics capabilities can be applied to critical production assets with the goal of reducing non-productive time, increasing yield and reducing operations costs.

register:WEBCAST


Cognitive Solutions for Upstream Oil and Gas

Fri, Jun 12, 2015

The oil & gas sector is under pressure on all sides. Reserves are limited and it’s becoming increasingly expensive to find and extract new resources. Margins are already being squeezed in an industry where one wrong decision can cost millions. Analyzing data used in energy exploration can save millions of dollars as we develop ways to predict where and how to extract the world’s massive energy reserves.

This session with IBM Subject Matter Experts will discuss how IBM Cognitive Solutions contribute to the oil and gas industry using predictive analytics and cognitive computing, as well as real time streaming for exploration and drilling.

register:WEBCAST


The Alternative Fuel Movement: Four Need-to-Know Excise Tax Complexities

Thu, Jun 4, 2015

Discussion on how to approach, and ultimately embrace, the alternative fuel market by pulling back the veil on excise tax complexities. Taxes may be an aggravating part of daily operations, but their accuracy is crucial in your path towards business success.

register:WEBCAST


Emerson Micro Motion Videos

Careers at TOTAL

Careers at TOTAL - Videos

More than 600 job openings are now online, watch videos and learn more!

 

Click Here to Watch

Other Oil & Gas Industry Jobs

Search More Job Listings >>
Stay Connected