EIA projects strong world energy consumption through 2040

World energy consumption will increase by 56% over the next 3 decades, driven by surging demand in developing countries, the US Energy Information Administration forecasts in its International Energy Outlook 2013 (IEO 2013), released July 25. In its outlook, EIA said it expects the world’s real gross domestic product to rise by 3.6%/year through 2040.

EIA forecasts total world energy use to increase to 630 quadrillion btu (quads) in 2020 and to 820 quads in 2040, from 524 quads in 2010. Energy consumption in countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is expected to increase by 90%, bolstered by strong, long-term economic growth. For countries within the OECD, this increase is expected to be 17% because of the slow pace of economic growth.

EIA forecasts fossil fuels to continue supplying nearly 80% of the world’s energy demand through 2040. The liquid share of world marketed energy consumption—although expected to remain the largest energy source—is expected to fall to 28% in 2040 from 34% in 2010. Renewable energy and nuclear power are expected to remain the fastest-growing energy sources, each rising by 2.5%/year over the forecast period.

Over the course of the IEO 2013 projection, world consumption of petroleum and other liquids is expected to rise to 115 million b/d in 2040 from 87 million b/d in 2010. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are expected to maintain a 39-43% share of total world liquids production through 2040.

World natural gas consumption is expected to climb to 185 tcf in 2040 from 113 tcf in 2010. The industrial and electric power sectors together account for 77% of the total projected world increase in gas consumption. The IEO 2013 reference cases projects a substantial increase in gas production, especially in the US, Canada, and China.

In the IEO 2013 reference case, which does not include prospective greenhouse gas reduction policies, coal remains the world’s second-largest energy source. World coal consumption is expected to rise at an average rate of 1.3%/year to 180 quads in 2020 and 220 quads in 2040, from 147 quads in 2010. Consumption of coal is expected to grow faster than that of petroleum until after 2030, mostly due to increases in China’s coal consumption and lower oil demand in OECD countries.

EIA said that given current policies and regulations limiting fossil fuel use, worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to increase 46% by 2040, reaching 45 billion tonnes in 2040.

Contact Conglin Xu at conglinx@ogjonline.com.

Related Articles

EPA approves Magellan’s Corpus Christi splitter project

12/12/2014 The US Environmental Protection Agency has issued a final greenhouse gas prevention of significant deterioration construction permit to Magellan Pr...

Keyera to take majority interest in Alberta gas plant

12/12/2014 Keyera Corp., Calgary, will pay $65 million (Can.) to buy a 70.79% ownership interest in the Ricinus deep-cut gas plant in west-central Alberta.

PBF Energy, PBF Logistics make management changes

12/12/2014 Matthew Lucey, currently executive vice-president of PBF Energy Inc., will succeed Michael Gayda as the company’s president. Todd O’Malley, current...

TAEP: TPI still peaking, but ‘contraction unavoidable’ as oil prices fall

12/12/2014 The Texas Petro Index (TPI), a composite index based on a comprehensive group of upstream economic indicators released by the Texas Alliance of Ene...

MARKET WATCH: NYMEX crude oil price extends slump

12/12/2014 Crude oil prices extended their slump on the New York market with a Dec. 11 settlement of less than $60/bbl for January, and prices continued downw...

US needs more data before ending crude export ban, House panel told

12/11/2014 Much more environmental impact information is needed before the US can reasonably remove crude oil export limits, a witness told a House Energy and...

BOEM raises offshore oil spill liability limit to $134 million

12/11/2014 The US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management increased the liability limit for oil-spill related damages from offshore operations to $134 million from ...

Rosneft, Essar sign terms of oil supply agreement

12/11/2014 OAO Rosneft and Essar Energy PLC have signed key terms of an oil supply agreement in New Delhi. Rosneft said shipments to India may begin in 2015.

Barton introduces bill to remove US crude export limits

12/11/2014

US Rep. Joe Barton (R-Tex.) introduced legislation that would remove US crude oil export limits that have been in place for nearly 40 years.

White Papers

AVEVA NET Accesses and Manages the Digital Asset

Global demand for new process plants, power plants and infrastructure is increasing steadily with the ...
Sponsored by

AVEVA’s Approach for the Digital Asset

To meet the requirements for leaner project execution and more efficient operations while transferring...
Sponsored by

Diversification - the technology aspects

In tough times, businesses seek to diversify into adjacent markets or to apply their skills and resour...
Sponsored by

Engineering & Design for Lean Construction

Modern marketing rhetoric claims that, in order to cut out expensive costs and reduce risks during the...
Sponsored by

Object Lessons - Why control of engineering design at the object level is essential for efficient project execution

Whatever the task, there is usually only one way to do it right and many more to do it wrong. In the c...
Sponsored by

Plant Design for Lean Construction - at your fingertips

One area which can provide improvements to the adoption of Lean principles is the application of mobil...
Sponsored by

How to Keep Your Mud System Vibrator Hose from Getting Hammered to Death

To prevent the vibrating hoses on your oilfield mud circulation systems from failing, you must examine...
Sponsored by

Duty of Care

Good corporate social responsibility means implementing effective workplace health and safety measures...
Sponsored by

Available Webcasts


On Demand

Optimizing your asset management practices to mitigate the effects of a down market

Thu, Dec 11, 2014

The oil and gas market is in constant flux, and as the price of BOE (Barrel of Oil Equivalent) goes down it is increasingly important to optimize your asset management strategy to stay afloat.  Attend this webinar to learn how developing a solid asset management plan can help your company mitigate costs in any market.

register:WEBCAST


Parylene Conformal Coatings for the Oil & Gas Industry

Thu, Nov 20, 2014

In this concise 30-minute webinar, participants have an opportunity to learn more about how Parylene coatings are applied, their features, and the value they add to devices and components.

register:WEBCAST


Utilizing Predictive Analytics to Optimize Productivity in Oil & Gas Operations

Tue, Nov 18, 2014

Join IBM on Tuesday, November 18 @ 1pm CST to explore how Predictive Analytics can help your organization maximize productivity, operational performance & associated processes to drive enterprise wide productivity and profitability.

register:WEBCAST


US HYDROCARBON EXPORTS Part 3 — LNG

Fri, Nov 14, 2014

US LNG Exports, the third in a trilogy of webcasts focusing on the broad topic of US Hydrocarbon Exports.

A discussion of the problems and potential for the export of US-produced liquefied natural gas.

These and other topics will be discussed, with the latest thoughts on U.S. LNG export policy.

register:WEBCAST


Careers at TOTAL

Careers at TOTAL - Videos

More than 600 job openings are now online, watch videos and learn more!

 

Click Here to Watch

Other Oil & Gas Industry Jobs

Search More Job Listings >>
Stay Connected