Variables, uncertainties still shape world energy outlook

Technological breakthroughs may have increased the world’s potential oil and gas resources significantly, but variables and uncertainties will determine how quickly and to what extent they are developed, participants emphasized during the opening day of the US Energy Information Administration’s annual conference.

Unconventional natural gas production growth will be strongest initially in North America, and have economic, geostrategic, and environmental impacts worldwide, agreed members of a panel examining that subject.

“We’re not going to see the same kind of global market for gas that exists for oil and coal, although there will be pressure on oil indexing as US [LNG] exports grow,” suggested Jason Bordoff, who directs Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

“The global LNG market is still based largely on relationships,” added Ira B. Joseph, executive director of PIRA Energy Group. “Oil price indexation will stick around, but the relationship will evolve over time.”

LNG transactions will continue to be primarily contracts instead of spot purchases, a third panelist noted. “There will have to be a substantial spot market overhang for more unconventional projects to move ahead,” said Wolfgang Moehler, IHS CERA associate director for global gas.

“The US position in the world LNG market will not be static,” Joseph noted, adding, “What it is from now to 2016 will be different from what it will be after.”

Driven by technology

But a second panel examining world hydrocarbon resources said technology will continue to be important in determining which unconventional oil and gas resources are developed and when.

Numerous global areas are unconventional hot spots, observed Phani Gadde, a North American gas supply analyst at Wood Mackenzie in Houston. “Drilling hundreds of wells each year creates a lot of operations information,” he said. “The learning curve never really stops.”

The world’s unconventional resources are generally concentrated, with a handful of countries accounting for about two thirds of the total, indicated Vello A. Kuuskraa, president of Advanced Resources International Inc. in Arlington, Va.

“The shale revolution already has moved into Canada, particularly British Columbia, and is beginning to grow in Argentina,” he told conference participants. China’s unconventional resource potential totals 1,115 tcf of gas and 32.2 billion bbl of oil, mostly in clay-rich areas, while Algeria’s is about 707 tcf of gas and 5.7 billion bbl of oil, Kuuskraa said.

Infrastructure, pricing, fuller characterization, and local support also are determining the rate at which unconventional oil and gas resources are being developed, Gadde said. Argentina, Australia (particularly in the Cooper basin), China, and Russia are doing pretty well, he said.

Producers also will need to apply best practices in many parts of their operations, Kuuskraa said. “Tackling methane emissions will be critically important the next few years,” he added.

Contact Nick Snow at nicks@pennwell.com.

Related Articles

BOEM schedules public meetings about draft proposed 5-year OCS plan

02/06/2015 The US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management will hold the first of 20 public meetings in Washington on Feb. 9 to receive public comments on potential ...

Union strike ongoing at US refineries as negotiations continue

02/06/2015 A strike by union workers at nine US refining and petrochemical production plants remains under way as the United Steelworkers Union (USW) continue...

NCOC lets $1.8-billion pipeline contract for Kashagan field

02/06/2015 North Caspian Operating Co. (NCOC) has let a $1.8-billion engineering and construction contract to ERSAI Caspian Contractor LLC, a subsidiary of Sa...

AOPL releases 2015 safety performance and strategic planning report

02/06/2015 The Association of Oil Pipe Lines is committed to further improvements despite a 99.99% safe petroleum liquids delivery rate, AOPL Pres. and Chief ...

MARKET WATCH: NYMEX oil price bounces back up somewhat

02/06/2015 Crude oil prices on the New York market bounced up $2/bbl to settle slightly above $50/bbl Feb. 5. The positive momentum continued during early Jan...

Congressional Republicans renew bid to halt sue-and-settle maneuvers

02/05/2015 Calling it an affront to regulatory accountability that results in unchecked compliance burdens, US Sen. Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) and US Rep. D...

Oil-price collapse may aggravate producing nations’ other problems

02/05/2015 The recent global crude-oil price plunge could be aggravating underlying problems in Mexico, Colombia, and other Western Hemisphere producing natio...

Goodlatte reintroduces bills to repeal, reform RFS

02/05/2015 Calling it “a true ‘kitchen table’ issue,” US Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.) reintroduced a pair of bills to address problems in the federal Renewable ...

MARKET WATCH: NYMEX oil drops, ending 4-day rally

02/05/2015 Crude oil prices dropped on the New York market Feb. 4 to settle below $50/bbl and to end a 4-day rally after a weekly government report showed oil...
White Papers

AVEVA’s Digital Asset Approach - Defining a new era of collaboration in capital projects and asset operations

There is constant, intensive change in the capital projects and asset life cycle management. New chall...
Sponsored by

Transforming the Oil and Gas Industry with EPPM

With budgets in the billions, timelines spanning years, and life cycles extending over decades, oil an...
Sponsored by

Asset Decommissioning in Oil & Gas: Transforming Business

Asset intensive organizations like Oil and Gas have their own industry specific challenges when it com...
Sponsored by

Squeezing the Green: How to Cut Petroleum Downstream Costs and Optimize Processing Efficiencies with Enterprise Project Portfolio Management Solutions

As the downstream petroleum industry grapples with change in every sector and at every level, includin...
Sponsored by

7 Steps to Improve Oil & Gas Asset Decommissioning

Global competition and volatile markets are creating a challenging business climate for project based ...
Sponsored by

The impact of aging infrastructure in process manufacturing industries

Process manufacturing companies in the oil and gas, utilities, chemicals and natural resource industri...
Sponsored by

What is System Level Thermo-Fluid Analysis?

This paper will explain some of the fundamentals of System Level Thermo-Fluid Analysis and demonstrate...

Accurate Thermo-Fluid Simulation in Real Time Environments

The crux of any task undertaken in System Level Thermo-Fluid Analysis is striking a balance between ti...
Available Webcasts


Prevention, Detection and Mitigation of pipeline leaks in the modern world

When Thu, Apr 30, 2015

Preventing, detecting and mitigating leaks or commodity releases from pipelines are a top priority for all pipeline companies. This presentation will look at various aspects related to preventing, detecting and mitigating pipeline commodity releases from a generic and conceptual point of view, while at the same time look at the variety of offerings available from Schneider Electric to meet some of the requirements associated with pipeline integrity management. 

register:WEBCAST



On Demand

Global LNG: Adjusting to New Realities

Fri, Mar 20, 2015

Oil & Gas Journal’s March 20, 2015, webcast will look at how global LNG trade will be affected over the next 12-24 months by falling crude oil prices and changing patterns and pressures of demand. Will US LNG production play a role in balancing markets? Or will it add to a growing global oversupply of LNG for markets remote from easier natural gas supply? Will new buyers with marginal credit, smaller requirements, or great need for flexibility begin to look attractive to suppliers? How will high-cost, mega-projects in Australia respond to new construction cost trends?

register:WEBCAST


US Midstream at a Crossroads

Fri, Mar 6, 2015

Oil & Gas Journal’s Mar. 6, 2015, webcast will focus on US midstream companies at an inflection point in their development in response to more than 6 years shale oil and gas production growth. Major infrastructure—gas plants, gathering systems, and takeaway pipelines—have been built. Major fractionation hubs have expanded. Given the radically changed pricing environment since mid-2014, where do processors go from here? What is the fate of large projects caught in mid-development? How to producers and processors cooperate to ensure a sustainable and profitable future? This event will serve to set the discussion table for the annual GPA Convention in San Antonio, Apr. 13-16, 2015.

This event is sponsored by Leidos Engineering.

register:WEBCAST


The Future of US Refining

Fri, Feb 6, 2015

Oil & Gas Journal’s Feb. 6, 2015, webcast will focus on the future of US refining as various forces this year conspire to pull the industry in different directions. Lower oil prices generally reduce feedstock costs, but they have also lowered refiners’ returns, as 2015 begins with refined products priced at lows not seen in years. If lower per-barrel crude prices dampen production of lighter crudes among shale plays, what will happen to refiners’ plans to export more barrels of lighter crudes? And as always, refiners will be affected by government regulations, particularly those that suppress demand, increase costs, or limit access to markets or supply.

register:WEBCAST


Emerson Micro Motion Videos

Careers at TOTAL

Careers at TOTAL - Videos

More than 600 job openings are now online, watch videos and learn more!

 

Click Here to Watch

Other Oil & Gas Industry Jobs

Search More Job Listings >>
Stay Connected