IHS CERAWeek: Energy industry entering transformation period, speakers say

IHS CERAWeek speakers generally agree the energy industry is entering a transformation period that likely will reshape traditional oil and natural gas supply-demand scenarios worldwide.

Some 2,200 participants from more than 50 countries were expected to attend the 32nd IHS CERAWeek energy conference, which is called “Drivers of Change: Geopolitics, Markets & the New Map of Energy.”

IHS analysts on Mar. 4 discussed how new technologies, sources of energy, and global demand shifts are remaking traditional oil and gas supply scenarios. Surging US unconventional production is spurring the changes. Questions remain as to how fast unconventional development might progress worldwide.

“One big takeaway is the scale of this unfolding oil and gas revolution in the US,” said Daniel Yergin, IHS CERAWeek chairman. Unconventional liquids plays helped boost US oil production, which grew by 40% since 2008—the highest growth in oil output of any country during that period.

“All this is leading to a vigorous discussion of how the energy needs of a growing world economy will be met over the next 2 decades and what the mix will be,” said Yergin. “Will an energy transition unfold over years or over decades?”

Emerging global trends and potential surprises in 2013 and beyond were topics addressed during an energy market outlook panel discussion that opened the conference on Mar. 4.

The US is expected to average 7.3 million b/d of oil production during 2013, up from 6.4 million b/d in 2012, the US Energy Information Administration has said.

Consequently, US crude oil imports are declining since their peak in 2005, said James Burkhard, IHS vice-president and head of oil market research and scenarios.

US oil imports averaged an estimated 7.7 million b/d during February 2013, down 1.2 million b/d from February 2012, EIA statistics showed.

Burkhard believes tight oil development outside North America will be much slower than it has been in the US and Canada.

“There are tight oil resources all around the world. The question is the pace” at which they might be developed and produced, he said.

Michael Stoppard, IHS managing director of global gas, believes “2013 is going to be the start of a rebalancing of imbalances in gas pricing.” He said US gas prices are at unsustainably low levels.

“The world demand for gas will continue to grow strongly for the next 2-3 years,” Stoppard said, forecasting it will be 2015 before substantial volumes of LNG exports from the US are available to the world market.

Discussing what he calls “a redrawing” of the global gas map, Stoppard said he sees three supply drivers: unconventional gas, deepwater gas discoveries, and associated gas linked to tight oil.

China gradually moving away from coal

Xizhou Zhou, IHS China energy director, outlined a trend of diversification in the world’s biggest energy consuming nation. China accounted for 40% of global oil demand growth last year.

Half of China’s new power plants are coal-fired plants with an obvious shift to other fuels, primarily nuclear and gas, he said.

“We are not going to do away with coal for many decades,” Zhou said. Coal today accounts for 80% of China’s power generation but it is expected to drop to 50-60% by 2025. “We believe the diversification away from coal already has begun.”

Thane Gustafson, IHS senior director for Russian and Caspian energy, said Russia has seen “nothing but surprises” in energy for 20 years.

“In 2013, the most surprising thing might be that there are no surprises,” Gustafson said. He anticipates a stable political environment accompanied by satisfactory economic growth for Russia this year. “2013 looks like an unusually quiet year.”

Beyond 2013, he believes surprises could be the pace of tight oil development in Russia. He added that other countries are beginning to adopt the US definition of tight oil, which he said includes difficult conventional oil.

Contact Paula Dittrick at paulad@ogjonline.com.

Related Articles

Congressional Republicans renew bid to halt sue-and-settle maneuvers

02/05/2015 Calling it an affront to regulatory accountability that results in unchecked compliance burdens, US Sen. Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) and US Rep. D...

Oil-price collapse may aggravate producing nations’ other problems

02/05/2015 The recent global crude-oil price plunge could be aggravating underlying problems in Mexico, Colombia, and other Western Hemisphere producing natio...

Goodlatte reintroduces bills to repeal, reform RFS

02/05/2015 Calling it “a true ‘kitchen table’ issue,” US Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.) reintroduced a pair of bills to address problems in the federal Renewable ...

MARKET WATCH: NYMEX oil drops, ending 4-day rally

02/05/2015 Crude oil prices dropped on the New York market Feb. 4 to settle below $50/bbl and to end a 4-day rally after a weekly government report showed oil...

Alberta’s premier seeks more North American energy integration

02/05/2015 Better policy integration and cooperation will be needed for Canada, Mexico, and the US to fully realize the North American energy renaissance’s po...

Deloitte studies oil supply growth for 2015-16

02/04/2015 A Deloitte MarketPoint analysis suggested large-field projects, each producing more than 25,000 b/d, could bring on 1.835 million b/d in oil supply...

Oil, gas infrastructure investments essential, House panel told

02/04/2015 Investments in oil and gas transportation and storage should move ahead because they are essential in continuing the US economic recovery and North...

Petrobras CEO, five other senior executives resign

02/04/2015 Maria das Gracas Foster, chief executive officer of Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras) since 2012, has resigned along with five other senior execut...

MARKET WATCH: NYMEX crude oil prices reach 2015 high

02/04/2015 Crude oil prices surged more than $3/bbl on the New York market Feb. 3, closing at the highest level so far this year, but some analysts believe th...
White Papers

Pipeline Integrity: Best Practices to Prevent, Detect, and Mitigate Commodity Releases

Commodity releases can have catastrophic consequences, so ensuring pipeline integrity is crucial for p...
Sponsored by

AVEVA’s Digital Asset Approach - Defining a new era of collaboration in capital projects and asset operations

There is constant, intensive change in the capital projects and asset life cycle management. New chall...
Sponsored by

Transforming the Oil and Gas Industry with EPPM

With budgets in the billions, timelines spanning years, and life cycles extending over decades, oil an...
Sponsored by

Asset Decommissioning in Oil & Gas: Transforming Business

Asset intensive organizations like Oil and Gas have their own industry specific challenges when it com...
Sponsored by

Squeezing the Green: How to Cut Petroleum Downstream Costs and Optimize Processing Efficiencies with Enterprise Project Portfolio Management Solutions

As the downstream petroleum industry grapples with change in every sector and at every level, includin...
Sponsored by

7 Steps to Improve Oil & Gas Asset Decommissioning

Global competition and volatile markets are creating a challenging business climate for project based ...
Sponsored by

The impact of aging infrastructure in process manufacturing industries

Process manufacturing companies in the oil and gas, utilities, chemicals and natural resource industri...
Sponsored by

What is System Level Thermo-Fluid Analysis?

This paper will explain some of the fundamentals of System Level Thermo-Fluid Analysis and demonstrate...
Available Webcasts


The Alternative Fuel Movement: Four Need-to-Know Excise Tax Complexities

When Thu, Jun 4, 2015

Discussion on how to approach, and ultimately embrace, the alternative fuel market by pulling back the veil on excise tax complexities. Taxes may be an aggravating part of daily operations, but their accuracy is crucial in your path towards business success.

register:WEBCAST



On Demand

Prevention, Detection and Mitigation of pipeline leaks in the modern world

Thu, Apr 30, 2015

Preventing, detecting and mitigating leaks or commodity releases from pipelines are a top priority for all pipeline companies. This presentation will look at various aspects related to preventing, detecting and mitigating pipeline commodity releases from a generic and conceptual point of view, while at the same time look at the variety of offerings available from Schneider Electric to meet some of the requirements associated with pipeline integrity management. 

register:WEBCAST


Global LNG: Adjusting to New Realities

Fri, Mar 20, 2015

Oil & Gas Journal’s March 20, 2015, webcast will look at how global LNG trade will be affected over the next 12-24 months by falling crude oil prices and changing patterns and pressures of demand. Will US LNG production play a role in balancing markets? Or will it add to a growing global oversupply of LNG for markets remote from easier natural gas supply? Will new buyers with marginal credit, smaller requirements, or great need for flexibility begin to look attractive to suppliers? How will high-cost, mega-projects in Australia respond to new construction cost trends?

register:WEBCAST


US Midstream at a Crossroads

Fri, Mar 6, 2015

Oil & Gas Journal’s Mar. 6, 2015, webcast will focus on US midstream companies at an inflection point in their development in response to more than 6 years shale oil and gas production growth. Major infrastructure—gas plants, gathering systems, and takeaway pipelines—have been built. Major fractionation hubs have expanded. Given the radically changed pricing environment since mid-2014, where do processors go from here? What is the fate of large projects caught in mid-development? How to producers and processors cooperate to ensure a sustainable and profitable future? This event will serve to set the discussion table for the annual GPA Convention in San Antonio, Apr. 13-16, 2015.

This event is sponsored by Leidos Engineering.

register:WEBCAST


Emerson Micro Motion Videos

Careers at TOTAL

Careers at TOTAL - Videos

More than 600 job openings are now online, watch videos and learn more!

 

Click Here to Watch

Other Oil & Gas Industry Jobs

Search More Job Listings >>
Stay Connected