Panorama 2013: Easing of oil price unlikely

With futures markets anticipating a price of Brent crude oil of $110/bbl this year, an easing to $90/bbl appears possible in three unlikely cases, according to Panorama 2013, an annual review by IFP Energy Nouvelles (IFPEN) of Paris:

• “A strongly deteriorated economic situation” with growth worse than projected by the International Monetary Fund in its base-case World Economic Outlook.

• Greater stability and less tension than prevail now in North Africa and the Middle East.

• Faster-than-forecast growth in US production of oil from shales and other low-permeability formations.

“Such scenarios, unlikely today, must not be excluded in principle,” wrote the Panorama 2013 author, Guy Maisonnier. “Surprises are a common occurrence in the oil market.”

IFPEN calls $110/bbl “an unstable balance threshold, changing according to geopolitical and financial vicissitudes.”

It identified Iran as a “sword of Damocles hanging over the market” as international concern over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program raises chances for military conflict.

In a report written in November, the industry-research group identified the general election in Israel last month as one of two events important to Iranian tensions, saying the outcome would determine the freedom to act by the Israeli prime minister. While Benjamin Netanyahu, the incumbent, held office in the election, he will have to form a ruling coalition after the political alliance through which he has governed lost support.

The other important event is an election in June that will determine the successor to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose outspoken hostility toward Israel has amplified worry about Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Related Articles

Buckeye to buy Corpus Christi terminal interest in $860 million deal

09/02/2014 Buckeye Partners LP has agreed to acquire 80% interest in a company that it will jointly own with Trafigura AG for $860 million. The transaction is...

Deals with CNPC seen good for Russian firms

09/02/2014 Russia’s recent oil and gas deals with China, some of which have been questioned on the basis of pricing, are good for Russian companies overall, a...

Pembina signs $650 million deal to buy Vantage line, associated assets

09/02/2014 Pembina Pipeline Corp., Calgary, has agreed to acquire the Vantage pipeline system and Mistral Midstream Inc.’s interest in the Saskatchewan ethane...

Gas production set to resume at In Amenas gas facilities

09/02/2014 Statoil ASA and partners BP PLC and Algerian state-owned Sonatrach are set to resume “ordinary operations” at the In Amenas gas production facility...

Careers at TOTAL

Careers at TOTAL - Videos

More than 600 job openings are now online, watch videos and learn more!

 

Click Here to Watch

Other Oil & Gas Industry Jobs

Search More Job Listings >>
Stay Connected