Worldwide liquid fuels consumption is expected to reach 90.2 million b/d this year and 91.6 million b/d in 2014, according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the US Energy Information Administration.
Projected OECD liquid fuels consumption will further decline by 300,000 b/d in 2013 and in 2004, OECD consumption will remain flat with higher European economic growth. Non‐OECD Asia is the leading regional contributor to expected global consumption growth, the STEO said.
EIA projects that liquid fuels consumption in China will increase by 450,000 b/d in 2013 and by 470,000 b/d in 2014, given expected strong economic growth and bolstered refinery crude oil input.
Projected world oil supply increases by 1.1 million b/d in 2013 and 2.0 million b/d in 2014. EIA expects that OPEC will continue to decrease crude oil supply by 0.3 million b/d in 2013 from the year prior and then rise by 0.3 million b/d in 2014. In response to non-OPEC growth and increasing production from some OPEC members, Saudi Arabia contributes the most to the decline in 2013.
Non-OPEC production to grow
Non-OPEC production is forecast to increase by 1.2 million b/d this year and by 1.4 million b/d in 2014. With the production boom from U.S. tight oil formations and Canadian oil sands, North America will account for about two-thirds of the projected growth over the next 2 years.
The STEO forecasts lower Canadian oil production in 2013 because of further delays in initial production of the Kearl oil sands mining project.
EIA expects total liquid fuels consumption in US will grow modestly by 50,000 b/d in 2013 and by 80,000 b/d in 2014. Distillate fuel oil consumption increases at an average annual rate of 20,000 b/d in 2013 and 60,000 b/d in 2014. Ethane and propane consumption will rise while motor gasoline and jet fuel consumption remains flat in 2013-14.
US total crude oil production is forecast to grow rapidly from an average 6.4 million b/d in 2012 to 7.3 million b/d in 2013 and 7.8 million b/d in 2014. Onshore basin production is central to this projected growth. Estimated Gulf of Mexico production increases to an average 1.4 million b/d in 2013.
EIA expects that US natural gas consumption will average 70.3 bcfd in 2013 and 70.0 bcfd in 2014, which is adjusted upwards from last month’s outlook due to changes to historical industrial sector consumption data. Projected marketed production increases to 70.0 bcfd in 2013, and remains flat in 2014. Henry Hub natural gas spot price is expected to average $3.53 /MMbtu in 2013 and $3.84 /MMbtu in 2014.
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