EIA forecasts loose global oil market through 2014

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, issued Jan. 8, the US Energy Information Administration forecasts a fairly loose oil market in the next 2 years, as higher global consumption will be more than offset by increasing global supply. Also, this STEO is the first to include monthly forecasts for 2014, EIA reported.

Worldwide oil supply is expected to increase by 1 million b/d in 2013 and by 1.7 million b/d in 2014 with most of the growth coming from producers outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, EIA reported. EIA also forecasts that non-OPEC production will rise by 1.4 million b/d in 2013 and by 1.3 million b/d in 2014. With continued increased production from US tight oil formations and Canadian oil sands, EIA sees North America accounting for two thirds of the projected growth in non-OPEC supply.

A decrease of 600,000 b/d in OPEC crude supply is expected in 2013, with the production reduction from Saudi Arabia. However, OPEC crude production will remain at least 30 million b/d over the next 2 years with increased production from some OPEC members, including Iraq, Nigeria, and Angola.

The growth of world liquid fuels consumption will remain flat in 2013 by an estimated 900,000 b/d. Due to a moderate recovery in global economic growth, worldwide liquid fuels consumption will pick up again in 2014 to an annual average of 1.3 million b/d. Most of the increase in the world’s oil consumption will come from countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development over the forecast period.

EIA projects OECD consumption to further decline by 300,000 b/d in 2013, as modest consumption increases in North America are more than offset by decreasing consumption in Europe. A higher economic growth and flattened European consumption in 2014 will narrow the OECD consumption decline to 100,000 b/d.

US crude oil, liquid fuels

Total US liquid fuels consumption is forecast to increase by 70,000 b/d in 2013 and by 60,000 b/d in 2014 after consecutive years of decline. Distillate fuel oil and liquefied petroleum gas contribute to most of the consumption growth with continued growth in industrial use and the assumption of near-normal winter weather. Forecast motor gasoline and jet fuel consumption in 2013 and 2014 remains flat from 2012.

EIA expects US total crude oil production to raise from an average 6.4 million b/d in 2012 to 7.3 million b/d in 2013. Projected crude oil production continues to increase to 7.9 million b/d in 2014. Estimated Gulf of Mexico production increases to an average 1.37 million b/d in 2013 and continues to increase to an average 1.44 million b/d in 2014.

Because of continued substantial increases in US crude oil production, EIA expects US liquid fuel net imports to continue declining to an average of 6 million b/d by 2014 from 7.5 million b/d in 2012. The share of total US consumption met by liquid fuel net imports will also fall to 32% in 2014 from an average of 40% in 2012.

US natural gas

EIA expects US natural gas consumption will average 69.7 bcfd in 2013 and 69.4 bcfd in 2014, which is virtually unchanged from 2012. EIA also sees continued growth in US gas production, which is driven largely by onshore shale production. Production in the Marcellus shale areas of Pennsylvania and West Virginia will contribute to the growth with drilled wells becoming operational.

Working inventories of gas in the US reached a record-high in early November 2012 at an estimated 3.5 tcf. The spot price for gas at Henry Hub is expected to average $3.74/MMbtu in 2013 and $3.90/MMbtu in 2014.

Contact Conglin Xu at conglinx@ogjonline.com.

Related Articles

Shell cuts $15 billion in spending for 2015-17

01/30/2015 Royal Dutch Shell PLC has curtailed more than $15 billion in potential spending over the next 3 years, but is not “not overreacting to current low ...

Victoria extends drilling, fracing ban

01/30/2015 The new Victorian Labor government of premier Daniel Andrews has extended the coal seam gas (CSG) exploration and hydraulic fracturing ban in the s...

Chevron’s $35 billion capital budget down 13% from last year

01/30/2015 Chevron Corp. will allocate $35 billion in its capital and exploratory investment program for 2015, including $4 billion of planned expenditures by...

US Senate passes bill approving Keystone XL pipeline project

01/30/2015 The US Senate has passed a bill approving construction of the proposed Keystone XL crude oil pipeline by a 62-36 vote after 3 weeks of debate. Nine...

Oxy cuts capital budget by a third

01/30/2015 In the midst of falling oil prices, Occidental Petroleum Corp., Houston, expects to reduce its total capital spending for 2015 to $5.8 billion from...

MARKET WATCH: NYMEX natural gas prices drop after storage report

01/30/2015 US natural gas closed at its lowest price in more than 2 years on the New York market Jan. 29 following the government’s weekly gas storage report,...

Pennsylvania governor reinstates state forest drilling moratorium

01/29/2015 Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf (D) signed an executive order fully reinstating a 2010 moratorium on new oil and gas leases in state forests and parks. ...

PwC: Low oil prices might drive surge in restructuring in 2015

01/29/2015 Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the oil and gas industry hit 10-year highs in terms of deal value and volume in 2014, according to a report f...

DOE could meet 45-day LNG export decision deadline, Senate panel told

01/29/2015 The US Department of Energy would have no trouble meeting a 45-day deadline to reach a national interest determination for proposed LNG export faci...

White Papers

Transforming the Oil and Gas Industry with EPPM

With budgets in the billions, timelines spanning years, and life cycles extending over decades, oil an...
Sponsored by

Asset Decommissioning in Oil & Gas: Transforming Business

Asset intensive organizations like Oil and Gas have their own industry specific challenges when it com...
Sponsored by

Squeezing the Green: How to Cut Petroleum Downstream Costs and Optimize Processing Efficiencies with Enterprise Project Portfolio Management Solutions

As the downstream petroleum industry grapples with change in every sector and at every level, includin...
Sponsored by

7 Steps to Improve Oil & Gas Asset Decommissioning

Global competition and volatile markets are creating a challenging business climate for project based ...
Sponsored by

The impact of aging infrastructure in process manufacturing industries

Process manufacturing companies in the oil and gas, utilities, chemicals and natural resource industri...
Sponsored by

What is System Level Thermo-Fluid Analysis?

This paper will explain some of the fundamentals of System Level Thermo-Fluid Analysis and demonstrate...

Accurate Thermo-Fluid Simulation in Real Time Environments

The crux of any task undertaken in System Level Thermo-Fluid Analysis is striking a balance between ti...

6 ways for Energy, Chemical and Oil and Gas Companies to Avert the Impending Workforce Crisis

As many as half of the skilled workers in energy, chemical and oil & gas industries are quickly he...
Sponsored by

Available Webcasts



Global LNG: Adjusting to New Realties

When Fri, Mar 20, 2015

Oil & Gas Journal’s March 20, 2015, webcast will look at how global LNG trade will be affected over the next 12-24 months by falling crude oil prices and changing patterns and pressures of demand. Will US LNG production play a role in balancing markets? Or will it add to a growing global oversupply of LNG for markets remote from easier natural gas supply? Will new buyers with marginal credit, smaller requirements, or great need for flexibility begin to look attractive to suppliers? How will high-cost, mega-projects in Australia respond to new construction cost trends?

register:WEBCAST


US Midstream at a Crossroads

When Fri, Mar 6, 2015

Oil & Gas Journal’s Mar. 6, 2015, webcast will focus on US midstream companies at an inflection point in their development in response to more than 6 years shale oil and gas production growth. Major infrastructure—gas plants, gathering systems, and takeaway pipelines—have been built. Major fractionation hubs have expanded. Given the radically changed pricing environment since mid-2014, where do processors go from here? What is the fate of large projects caught in mid-development? How to producers and processors cooperate to ensure a sustainable and profitable future? This event will serve to set the discussion table for the annual GPA Convention in San Antonio, Apr. 13-16, 2015.

This event is sponsored by Leidos Engineering.

register:WEBCAST



On Demand

The Future of US Refining

Fri, Feb 6, 2015

Oil & Gas Journal’s Feb. 6, 2015, webcast will focus on the future of US refining as various forces this year conspire to pull the industry in different directions. Lower oil prices generally reduce feedstock costs, but they have also lowered refiners’ returns, as 2015 begins with refined products priced at lows not seen in years. If lower per-barrel crude prices dampen production of lighter crudes among shale plays, what will happen to refiners’ plans to export more barrels of lighter crudes? And as always, refiners will be affected by government regulations, particularly those that suppress demand, increase costs, or limit access to markets or supply.

register:WEBCAST


Oil & Gas Journal’s Forecast & Review/Worldwide Pipeline Construction 2015

Fri, Jan 30, 2015

The  Forecast & Review/Worldwide Pipeline Construction 2015 Webcast will address Oil & Gas Journal’s outlooks for the oil market and pipeline construction in a year of turbulence. Based on two annual special reports, the webcast will be presented by OGJ Editor Bob Tippee and OGJ Managing Editor-Technology Chris Smith.
The Forecast & Review portion of the webcast will identify forces underlying the collapse in crude oil prices and assess prospects for changes essential to recovery—all in the context of geopolitical pressures buffeting the market.

register:WEBCAST


Careers at TOTAL

Careers at TOTAL - Videos

More than 600 job openings are now online, watch videos and learn more!

 

Click Here to Watch

Other Oil & Gas Industry Jobs

Search More Job Listings >>
Stay Connected