EIA: AEO 2013 reference case projects faster US production growth

Advanced technologies will increase US oil production more quickly than previously forecast, the US Energy Information Administration said as it released its 2013 Annual Energy Outlook reference case. Production will rise more quickly than demand as more stringent motor vehicle efficiency standards take effect, it indicated.

“EIA's updated reference case shows how evolving consumer preferences, improved technology, and economic changes are pushing the nation toward more domestic energy production, greater vehicle efficiency, greater use of clean energy, and reduced energy imports,” said Adam Sieminski, EIA administrator.

The reference case is the earliest release of EIA’s annual projections and provides only a baseline for scenarios that will be developed for the final AEO, to be released next spring, Sieminski said. It also marked the first time that IEA has projected estimates to 2040 and used a Brent crude reference price, he added.

The latest estimates placed US oil production, which averaged 5.67 million b/d in 2011, at 6.79 million b/d in 2025, up from the 6.4 million b/d estimate in the 2012 AEO, and 6.26 million b/d in 2035, up from the 2012 AEO’s 5.99 million b/d. Net imports, meanwhile, are expected to fall from 8.67 million b/d in 2011 to 7.08 million b/d in 2025, lower than the 2012 AEO’s 7.14 million b/d, and 7.06 million b/d in 2035, less than the 2012 AEO’s 7.25 million b/d.

US oil import dependence could fall to 37% by 2035, Sieminski said during a briefing on the reference case at Johns Hopkins University’s School for Advanced International Studies. “It could be smaller,” he suggested. “If there’s greater vehicle fuel efficiency, production would continue to rise instead of peaking around 2020.”

The US natural gas production reference case (combining dry gas production and supplemental gas) showed an increase from 23.06 tcf in 2011 to 28.65 tcf in 2025, up from 26.34 tcf in the 2012 AEO, and 31.41 tcf in 2035, higher than the 27.99 estimate in 2012’s AEO. The 2013 reference case projected a transition from 1.95 tcf of net gas imports in 2011 to 1.58 tcf of exports in 2025 (more than the estimated 790 bcf in the 2012 reference case) and 2.55 tcf of exports in 2035 (more than the 2012 reference case’s 1.36 tcf).

Sieminski said continued low US gas prices could help it penetrate new markets, including transportation (particularly LNG in long-haul, heavy-duty vehicles), although the heaviest demand growth will continue to come from industries and electric power generators.

Contact Nick Snow at nicks@pennwell.com.

Related Articles

Judge bars Anadarko e-mails as evidence in Macondo blowout hearing

03/21/2014 A federal district judge in New Orleans refused to accept e-mails between Anadarko Petroleum Corp. and BP PLC as evidence in a hearing to determine...

Industry group welcomes most UK budget moves

03/21/2014 Oil & Gas UK voiced support for all but one of several measures affecting the offshore producing industry announced in the UK government’s annu...

MARKET WATCH: Crude oil, gas futures prices slide entering spring

03/21/2014

The first day of spring in the northern hemisphere was marked by lower crude oil and natural gas futures prices.

OMV acquires West of Shetland licenses from Hess

03/21/2014 OMV AG has reached an agreement with Hess Corp. to acquire four licenses in West of Shetland, UK, including Cambo field and the Blackrock prospect,...

Careers at TOTAL

Careers at TOTAL - Videos

More than 600 job openings are now online, watch videos and learn more!

 

Click Here to Watch

Other Oil & Gas Industry Jobs

Search More Job Listings >>
Stay Connected