IEA: US to overtake Saudi Arabia in oil production

With global oil demand continuing to increase, the US will replace Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer about 2020, and North America will become a net oil exporter by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency.

China, India, and the Middle East will account for 60% of a 30% increase in global energy demand between now and 2035, IEA projects in its World Energy Outlook 2012. By 2035, almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil flows to Asia in IEA’s projection.

“The global energy map is changing, with potentially far-reaching consequences for energy markets and trade,” IEA says.

The outlook projects an increase in worldwide oil demand to 99.7 million b/d in 2035 from 87.4 million b/d in 2011, driven by a doubling in the number of passenger cars to 1.7 billion and a rapid increase in demand for road freight.

Unconventional surge

In IEA’s new forecast, oil production from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries rises to a plateau above 53 million b/d after 2015 from less than 49 million b/d in 2011 then begins in the mid-2020s to ease back to 50 million b/d by 2035.

The non-OPEC increase comes from “a surge in unconventional supplies” in the US and Canada and deepwater production offshore Brazil. OPEC production increases, especially after 2020, pushing the exporter group’s share of global oil production toward 50% by 2035 from 42% at present.

“The net increase in global oil production is driven entirely by unconventional oil, including a contribution from light tight oil that exceeds 4 million b/d for much of the 2020s, and by natural gas liquids,” IEA says.

The agency says almost 30% of the $15 trillion in upstream oil and gas investment needed through 2035 will be in North America.

Iraq makes the largest single contribution to global oil supply growth in IEA’s forecast with production exceeding 6 million b/d in 2020 and 8 million b/d in 2035. In the absence of this production growth, the price of imported oil would be $15/bbl higher than the $125/bbl (2011 dollars) in IEA’s base-case projection for 2035.

Gas growth

Demand for natural gas varies by region, increasing by 50% worldwide to 5 trillion cu m in 2035, according to IEA. Nearly half the required production increase comes from unconventional resources, especially in the US, Australia, and China. In the US, abundance and low prices help gas overtake oil to claim the largest share of the energy mix about 2030.

Renewable energy in IEA’s base-case projection accounts for almost one third of global electricity output by 2035, with solar growing fastest. The increase in renewable energy is stimulated by falling technology costs, rising fossil-fuel prices, carbon pricing, and continued subsidization. IEA expects global subsidies of renewable energy to rise from $88 billion in 2011 to $240 billion in 2035.

The outlook for coal depends greatly on the strength of policy measures favoring lower-emissions energy sources, deployment of high-efficiency coal-burning technologies, and development of carbon capture and sequestration.

IEA says it has lowered its expectations for growth in nuclear power as national governments review policies in the wake of the Fukushima Daiichi accident in Japan in 2011. It projects growth in installed nuclear power capacity but a slight decline in the nuclear share of total energy use.

Water and emissions

Water needs for energy production will grow at twice the rate of energy demand, IEA says. The agency estimates water withdrawals for energy production in 2010 at 583 billion cu m, of which 66 billion cu m represented consumption, or water withdrawn but not returned to its source.

IEA projects an increase in energy-related water consumption of 85% through 2035, reflecting more water-intensive power generation and expanding output of biofuels.

Under IEA’s assumptions, emissions of greenhouse gases in the base-case scenario correspond to a long-term average global temperature of 3.6º C., IEA says.

Related Articles

PHMSA proposes pipeline accident notification regulations

07/02/2015 The US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration has proposed new federal oil and gas pipeline accident and notification regulations. ...

BHI: US oil rig count rises for first time in 30 weeks

07/02/2015 A sudden 12-unit jump in oil-directed rigs during the abbreviated week ended July 2 represented their first rise since Dec. 5, 2014, and helped lif...

FourPoint Energy to acquire Anadarko basin assets from Chesapeake

07/02/2015 FourPoint Energy LLC, a privately owned Denver company, plans to acquire oil and gas assets from Chesapeake Energy Corp. subsidiaries Chesapeake Ex...

Puma Energy completes purchase of Murco’s UK refinery, terminals

07/02/2015 Singapore-based Puma Energy Group Pte. has completed its purchase of UK midstream and downstream assets from Murco Petroleum Ltd., a subsidiary of ...

BP to settle federal, state Deepwater Horizon claims for $18.7 billion

07/02/2015 BP Exploration & Production Inc. has agreed in principle to settle all federal and state claims arising from the 2010 Deepwater Horizon inciden...

MARKET WATCH: NYMEX oil prices plummet on crude inventory build, Iran deadline extension

07/02/2015 Oil prices plummeted more than $2/bbl July 1 to settle at a 2-month low on the New York market after a weekly government report showed the first ri...

API to issue recommended practice to address pipeline safety

07/01/2015 The American Petroleum Institute expects to issue a new recommended practice in another few weeks that addresses pipeline safety issues, but the tr...

Shell Midstream Partners takes interest in Poseidon oil pipeline

07/01/2015 Shell Midstream Partners LP has completed its acquisition of 36% equity interest in Poseidon Oil Pipeline Co. LLC from Equilon Enterprises LLC, a s...

Shell makes FID on Appomattox deepwater development in Gulf of Mexico

07/01/2015 Royal Dutch Shell PLC has taken a final investment decision (FID) on the Appomattox deepwater development, authorizing construction and installatio...
White Papers

2015 Global Engineering Information Management Solutions Competitive Strategy Innovation and Leadership Award

The Frost & Sullivan Best Practices Awards recognise companies in a variety of regional and global...
Sponsored by

Three Tips to Improve Safety in the Oil Field

Working oil fields will always be tough work with inherent risks. There’s no getting around that. Ther...
Sponsored by

Pipeline Integrity: Best Practices to Prevent, Detect, and Mitigate Commodity Releases

Commodity releases can have catastrophic consequences, so ensuring pipeline integrity is crucial for p...
Sponsored by

AVEVA’s Digital Asset Approach - Defining a new era of collaboration in capital projects and asset operations

There is constant, intensive change in the capital projects and asset life cycle management. New chall...
Sponsored by

Transforming the Oil and Gas Industry with EPPM

With budgets in the billions, timelines spanning years, and life cycles extending over decades, oil an...
Sponsored by

Asset Decommissioning in Oil & Gas: Transforming Business

Asset intensive organizations like Oil and Gas have their own industry specific challenges when it com...
Sponsored by

Squeezing the Green: How to Cut Petroleum Downstream Costs and Optimize Processing Efficiencies with Enterprise Project Portfolio Management Solutions

As the downstream petroleum industry grapples with change in every sector and at every level, includin...
Sponsored by

7 Steps to Improve Oil & Gas Asset Decommissioning

Global competition and volatile markets are creating a challenging business climate for project based ...
Sponsored by
Available Webcasts


OGJ's Midyear Forecast 2015

When Fri, Jul 10, 2015

This webcast is to be presented by OGJ Editor Bob Tippee and Senior Economic Editor Conglin Xu.  They will summarize the Midyear Forecast projections in key categories, note important changes from January’s forecasts, and examine reasons for the adjustments.

register:WEBCAST


Predictive Analytics in your digital oilfield - Optimize Production Yield and Reduce Operational Costs

When Tue, Jul 7, 2015

Putting predictive analytics to work in your oilfield can help you anticipate failures, plan and schedule work in advance, eliminate emergency work and catastrophic failures, and at the same time you can optimize working capital and improve resource utilization.  When you apply analytic capabilities to critical production assets it is possible to reduce non-productive time and increase your yield.

Learn how IBM's analytics capabilities can be applied to critical production assets with the goal of reducing non-productive time, increasing yield and reducing operations costs.

register:WEBCAST



On Demand

Cognitive Solutions for Upstream Oil and Gas

Fri, Jun 12, 2015

The oil & gas sector is under pressure on all sides. Reserves are limited and it’s becoming increasingly expensive to find and extract new resources. Margins are already being squeezed in an industry where one wrong decision can cost millions. Analyzing data used in energy exploration can save millions of dollars as we develop ways to predict where and how to extract the world’s massive energy reserves.

This session with IBM Subject Matter Experts will discuss how IBM Cognitive Solutions contribute to the oil and gas industry using predictive analytics and cognitive computing, as well as real time streaming for exploration and drilling.

register:WEBCAST


The Alternative Fuel Movement: Four Need-to-Know Excise Tax Complexities

Thu, Jun 4, 2015

Discussion on how to approach, and ultimately embrace, the alternative fuel market by pulling back the veil on excise tax complexities. Taxes may be an aggravating part of daily operations, but their accuracy is crucial in your path towards business success.

register:WEBCAST


Emerson Micro Motion Videos

Careers at TOTAL

Careers at TOTAL - Videos

More than 600 job openings are now online, watch videos and learn more!

 

Click Here to Watch

Other Oil & Gas Industry Jobs

Search More Job Listings >>
Stay Connected