IEA: US to overtake Saudi Arabia in oil production

With global oil demand continuing to increase, the US will replace Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer about 2020, and North America will become a net oil exporter by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency.

China, India, and the Middle East will account for 60% of a 30% increase in global energy demand between now and 2035, IEA projects in its World Energy Outlook 2012. By 2035, almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil flows to Asia in IEA’s projection.

“The global energy map is changing, with potentially far-reaching consequences for energy markets and trade,” IEA says.

The outlook projects an increase in worldwide oil demand to 99.7 million b/d in 2035 from 87.4 million b/d in 2011, driven by a doubling in the number of passenger cars to 1.7 billion and a rapid increase in demand for road freight.

Unconventional surge

In IEA’s new forecast, oil production from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries rises to a plateau above 53 million b/d after 2015 from less than 49 million b/d in 2011 then begins in the mid-2020s to ease back to 50 million b/d by 2035.

The non-OPEC increase comes from “a surge in unconventional supplies” in the US and Canada and deepwater production offshore Brazil. OPEC production increases, especially after 2020, pushing the exporter group’s share of global oil production toward 50% by 2035 from 42% at present.

“The net increase in global oil production is driven entirely by unconventional oil, including a contribution from light tight oil that exceeds 4 million b/d for much of the 2020s, and by natural gas liquids,” IEA says.

The agency says almost 30% of the $15 trillion in upstream oil and gas investment needed through 2035 will be in North America.

Iraq makes the largest single contribution to global oil supply growth in IEA’s forecast with production exceeding 6 million b/d in 2020 and 8 million b/d in 2035. In the absence of this production growth, the price of imported oil would be $15/bbl higher than the $125/bbl (2011 dollars) in IEA’s base-case projection for 2035.

Gas growth

Demand for natural gas varies by region, increasing by 50% worldwide to 5 trillion cu m in 2035, according to IEA. Nearly half the required production increase comes from unconventional resources, especially in the US, Australia, and China. In the US, abundance and low prices help gas overtake oil to claim the largest share of the energy mix about 2030.

Renewable energy in IEA’s base-case projection accounts for almost one third of global electricity output by 2035, with solar growing fastest. The increase in renewable energy is stimulated by falling technology costs, rising fossil-fuel prices, carbon pricing, and continued subsidization. IEA expects global subsidies of renewable energy to rise from $88 billion in 2011 to $240 billion in 2035.

The outlook for coal depends greatly on the strength of policy measures favoring lower-emissions energy sources, deployment of high-efficiency coal-burning technologies, and development of carbon capture and sequestration.

IEA says it has lowered its expectations for growth in nuclear power as national governments review policies in the wake of the Fukushima Daiichi accident in Japan in 2011. It projects growth in installed nuclear power capacity but a slight decline in the nuclear share of total energy use.

Water and emissions

Water needs for energy production will grow at twice the rate of energy demand, IEA says. The agency estimates water withdrawals for energy production in 2010 at 583 billion cu m, of which 66 billion cu m represented consumption, or water withdrawn but not returned to its source.

IEA projects an increase in energy-related water consumption of 85% through 2035, reflecting more water-intensive power generation and expanding output of biofuels.

Under IEA’s assumptions, emissions of greenhouse gases in the base-case scenario correspond to a long-term average global temperature of 3.6º C., IEA says.

Related Articles

BLM approves ROW for Elko gas pipeline expansion project

07/07/2015 The US Bureau of Land Management’s Tuscarora, Nev., field office signed a decision record approving a right-of-way for Paiute Pipeline Co.’s (PPC) ...

Obama urged by IPAA president to lift ban on US crude exports

07/07/2015 Commending the administration for its actions allowing some condensate to be exported as a petroleum product, Independent Petroleum Association of ...

Cidade de Itaguai FPSO anchors in Lula field

07/07/2015 Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras) reported that the Cidade de Itaguai floating production, storage, and offloading vessel has arrived at the Irace...

Statoil lets Johan Sverdrup drilling contract to Baker Hughes

07/07/2015

Statoil ASA has let an integrating drilling contract valued at 1.5 billion kroner to Baker Hughes Norway for the Johan Sverdrup development.

AER shuts in 16 Murphy Oil sites in Peace River region for noncompliance

07/07/2015 Alberta Energy Regulator said it has shut in or partially shut in 16 sites operated by Murphy Oil Co. Ltd. in the Peace River region. The sites wer...

MARKET WATCH: NYMEX, Brent oil prices take dive on world oil oversupply concerns

07/07/2015 US light, sweet crude oil prices plummeted more than $4/bbl on the New York market July 6, marking a 5-month low, while Brent crude oil prices on t...

WAFWA: Aerial survey finds lesser prairie chicken population grew

07/06/2015 A recent range-wide aerial survey found the lesser prairie chicken population rose 25% from 2014 to 2015, the Western Association of Fish & Wil...

Production ramps up from Sunrise oil sands project

07/06/2015 Husky Energy Inc., Calgary, reported that 25 well pairs are now on production at its Sunrise oil sands project in northeastern Alberta. Steaming is...

Buru awarded onshore Canning licenses

07/06/2015 Buru Energy Ltd., Perth, and Mitsubish Corp. have been granted two production licenses for Ungani oil field in the onshore Canning basin of Western...
White Papers

UAS Integration for Infrastructure: More than Just Flying

Oil and gas companies recognize the benefits that the use of drones or unmanned aerial systems (UAS) c...

Solutions to Financial Distress Resulting from a Weak Oil and Gas Price Environment

The oil and gas industry is in the midst of a prolonged worldwide downturn in commodity prices. While ...
Sponsored by

2015 Global Engineering Information Management Solutions Competitive Strategy Innovation and Leadership Award

The Frost & Sullivan Best Practices Awards recognise companies in a variety of regional and global...
Sponsored by

Three Tips to Improve Safety in the Oil Field

Working oil fields will always be tough work with inherent risks. There’s no getting around that. Ther...
Sponsored by

Pipeline Integrity: Best Practices to Prevent, Detect, and Mitigate Commodity Releases

Commodity releases can have catastrophic consequences, so ensuring pipeline integrity is crucial for p...
Sponsored by

AVEVA’s Digital Asset Approach - Defining a new era of collaboration in capital projects and asset operations

There is constant, intensive change in the capital projects and asset life cycle management. New chall...
Sponsored by

Transforming the Oil and Gas Industry with EPPM

With budgets in the billions, timelines spanning years, and life cycles extending over decades, oil an...
Sponsored by

Asset Decommissioning in Oil & Gas: Transforming Business

Asset intensive organizations like Oil and Gas have their own industry specific challenges when it com...
Sponsored by
Available Webcasts


Operating a Sustainable Oil & Gas Supply Chain in North America

When Wed, Oct 7, 2015

Short lead times and unpredictable conditions in the Oil & Gas industry can create costly challenges in supply chains. By implementing a LEAN culture of continuous improvement you can eliminate waste, increase productivity and gain end-to-end visibility leading to a sustainable and well-oiled supply chain.

Please join us for this webcast sponsored by Ryder System, Inc.

register:WEBCAST


The Resilient Oilfield in the Internet of Things World

When Tue, Sep 22, 2015

As we hear about the hype surrounding the Internet of Things, the oil and gas industry is questioning what is different than what is already being done. What is new?  Using sensors and connecting devices is nothing new to our mode of business and in many ways the industry exemplifies many principles of an industrial internet of things. How does the Internet of Things impact the oil and gas industry?

Prolific instrumentation and automation digitized the industry and has changed the approach to business models calling for a systems led approach.  Resilient Systems have the ability to adapt to changing circumstances while maintaining their central purpose.  A resilient system, such as Maximo, allows an asset intensive organization to leverage connected devices by merging real-time asset information with other critical asset information and using that information to create a more agile organization.  

Join this webcast, sponsored by IBM, to learn how about Internet of Things capabilities and resilient systems are impacting the landscape of the oil and gas industry.

register:WEBCAST



On Demand

Taking the Headache out of Fuel License and Exemption Certificates: How to Ensure Compliance

Tue, Aug 25, 2015

This webinar, brought to you by Avalara, will detail the challenges of tax document management, as well as recommend solutions for fuel suppliers. You will learn:

-    Why it’s critical to track business partner licenses and exemption documents
-    The four key business challenges of ensuring tax compliance through document management
-    Best practice business processes to minimize exposure to tax errors

register:WEBCAST


Driving Growth and Efficiency with Deep Insights into Operational Data

Wed, Aug 19, 2015

Capitalizing on today’s momentum in Oil & Gas requires operational excellence based on a clear view of what your business data is telling you. Which is why nearly half* of oil and gas companies have deployed SAP HANA or have it on their roadmap.

Join SAP and Red Hat to learn more about using data to drive process improvements and identify new opportunities with the SAP HANA platform running on Red Hat Enterprise Linux. This webinar will also show how your choice of infrastructure impacts the performance of core business applications and your ability to achieve data-driven insights quickly and reliably.

*48% use SAP, http://go.sap.com/solution/industry/oil-gas.html

register:WEBCAST


Emerson Micro Motion Videos

Careers at TOTAL

Careers at TOTAL - Videos

More than 600 job openings are now online, watch videos and learn more!

 

Click Here to Watch

Other Oil & Gas Industry Jobs

Search More Job Listings >>
Stay Connected