Total SA’s projections call for a plateauing of global crude oil production at 95 million boe/d by 2025-30, according to Michael Borrell, Total senior vice-president, Continental Europe-Central Asia. While speaking at the KazEnergy Eurasian Forum, Borrell also noted that fossil fuels would retain their lead as the world’s primary energy source in 2030, comprising roughly 75% of the total energy market, with natural gas passing coal to become the second largest single energy source behind oil.
Renewables also will grow, Borrell said, filling the gap left by nuclear in the wake of the accident at Japan’s Fukashima reactor.
Borrel cautioned that developing the oil resources necessary to meet demand will become increasingly capital intensive and locally contentious, as exploration reaches into ever-newer territories. He also noted that current rates of reserves replacement will not be able to keep pace with demand and listed improvements in seismic imaging and optimization of both reservoir management and enhanced oil recovery as key steps if the 95 million boe/d plateau is to be reached and maintained.
Current global oil production is roughly 83 million b/d according to the 2012 BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
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