IEA trims 2013 oil demand outlook

Based on weaker economic growth assumptions, the International Energy Agency has reduced its outlook for 2013 worldwide oil demand by 150,000 b/d from its month-ago forecast. Oil demand growth now is pegged at 870,000 b/d in 2012 and 830,000 b/d in 2013, according to the Paris-based agency’s latest oil market report.

Oil demand among the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which now includes Chile, Israel, Slovenia, and Estonia, is forecast to average 46.1 million b/d this year and then decline to 45.8 million b/d in 2013 due to demand decreases in Europe and Asia.

Non-OECD demand will average 43.5 million b/d this year and 44.7 million b/d next year, IEA forecasts, as demand rises in all regions except Europe.

Oil supply

Global oil supply during July grew by 300,000 b/d from a month earlier to average 90.7 million b/d. This is up by 2.6 million b/d from July 2011, IEA reported, with crude and natural gas liquids production from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries accounting for 80% of the increase.

With Iranian crude supply slipping to 2.9 million b/d, OPEC crude supply for July is estimated at 31.39 million b/d, down by 70,000 b/d from the previous month.

Lower output from Iran, Angola, and Libya outweighed increases from Iraq, the UAE, and Qatar, and OPEC output now stands just above the ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ for this year’s third quarter, IEA said. The call is expected to decline to 30.4 million b/d in the fourth quarter and to 30.1 million b/d in 2013.

OPEC effective spare capacity nudged higher to 2.57 million b/d last month, but remains slim relative to current supply-side risks permeating the market, IEA said. Sabotage could return to Yemen, and a comprehensive agreement between Sudan and South Sudan could prove elusive. In Latin America, Brazilian production is underperforming, and Colombia’s Cano Limón pipeline was bombed last month, according to the report.

Meanwhile, non-OPEC oil supply grew by 200,000 b/d in July from a month earlier and by 500,000 b/d from a year earlier. IEA expects non-OPEC oil output will grow by 400,000 b/d in 2012 from a year earlier and by another 700,000 b/d next year, led by increases in North America.

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