Production of crude oil will more than double to 6.2 million b/d by 2030, largely from oil sands, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.
Production last year was 3 million b/d, of which 1.1 million b/d came from conventional resources in Western Canada, 1.6 million b/d from oil sands, and 300,000 b/d from Eastern Canada, CAPP says in a new report.
The trade group expects conventional production in Western Canada to rise to 1.3 million b/d in 2015 and 2020 before slipping to 1.2 million b/d in 2025 and back to 1.1 million b/d in 2030.
Production from the oil sands region climbs steadily in the CAPP projection: to 2.3 million b/d in 2015, 3.1 million b/d in 2020, 4.2 million b/d in 2025, and 5 million b/d in 2030.
Conventional production from Eastern Canada, CAPP says, will slip to 200,000 b/d in 2015 and stay at that level through 2025 before falling to 100,000 b/d in 2030.