IEA: Iraq leads increased medium-term OPEC production capacity

The International Energy Agency, revising upward earlier estimates, said it expects production capacity of members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to reach 38.1 million b/d by 2016.

“Crude oil expansion plans in the medium term are moving apace, with capacity now forecast to increase by 2.33 million b/d to 38.1 million b/d by 2016,” IEA said in its latest monthly report.

“Iraq accounts for 80% of the increased capacity, followed by the UAE and Angola,” IEA said, noting that capacity growth is 200,000 b/d higher than its previous forecast for the 2010-16 period.

IEA cautioned that delays to Iranian projects will partly offset the upward revisions to Iraq, where the agency said oil production capacity is forecast to increase by “a sharp 1.87 million b/d, to 4.36 million b/d on average by 2016.”

Aside from Iraq, the only other countries set to contribute significant growth are the UAE, Angola, and Nigeria, which combined will add “a further net 1.3 million b/d by 2016.”

Libya's oil production capacity, disrupted by civil war this year, is expected to rise to 1.15 million b/d in 2012, short of the estimated capacity in 2010 of 1.67 million b/d.

However, IEA said Libyan capacity is expected to continue its rise, reaching 1.61 million b/d in 2014, 1.74 million b/d in 2015, and 1.79 million b/d in 2016.

IEA drew attention to an embargo now being considered by the European Union on nearly 600,000 b/d of Iranian oil imports. That could rise to 1.3 million b/d if other OECD sales are included.

IEA felt it unlikely that a further 1.2 million b/d of Iranian exports, largely to China and India, would be affected.

EU or broader international measures may not be agreed until the end of January 2012, thus allowing operators time to source alternative supplies and coinciding with a seasonal fall in European refiner crude demand in the spring.

However, IEA noted that even a partial ban would nonetheless likely leave Mediterranean refiners “confronting higher prices” for replacement crude from producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia.

Moreover, IEA said Saudi spare capacity “may not be a precise match” for the significant volumes of Iranian heavy crude involved and that European refiners may face “further competitive pressure” if Asian buyers obtain incremental Iranian cargoes at discounted prices.

But IEA still observed that as a result of tighter US and EU sanctions, Iran’s production capacity “is now forecast to decline by 890,000 b/d to just under 3 million b/d by 2016.”

Meanwhile, IEA reported that OPEC oil supply in November rose to the highest level in more than 3 years, up by 620,000 b/d to 30.68 million b/d. It said Saudi Arabia and Libya accounted for 80% of the monthly increase, with smaller increases posted by Nigeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Iran, Qatar, and the UAE.

In its monthly report, IEA said OPEC’s “effective” spare capacity now stands at 3.16 million b/d compared with 3.58 million b/d in October, explaining that “the lower estimate reflects higher OPEC supplies in November.”

Contact Eric Watkins at hippalus@yahoo.com.

Related Articles

PHMSA proposes pipeline accident notification regulations

07/02/2015 The US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration has proposed new federal oil and gas pipeline accident and notification regulations. ...

FourPoint Energy to acquire Anadarko basin assets from Chesapeake

07/02/2015 FourPoint Energy LLC, a privately owned Denver company, plans to acquire oil and gas assets from Chesapeake Energy Corp. subsidiaries Chesapeake Ex...

Puma Energy completes purchase of Murco’s UK refinery, terminals

07/02/2015 Singapore-based Puma Energy Group Pte. has completed its purchase of UK midstream and downstream assets from Murco Petroleum Ltd., a subsidiary of ...

BP to settle federal, state Deepwater Horizon claims for $18.7 billion

07/02/2015 BP Exploration & Production Inc. has agreed in principle to settle all federal and state claims arising from the 2010 Deepwater Horizon inciden...

MARKET WATCH: NYMEX oil prices plummet on crude inventory build, Iran deadline extension

07/02/2015 Oil prices plummeted more than $2/bbl July 1 to settle at a 2-month low on the New York market after a weekly government report showed the first ri...

API to issue recommended practice to address pipeline safety

07/01/2015 The American Petroleum Institute expects to issue a new recommended practice in another few weeks that addresses pipeline safety issues, but the tr...

Shell Midstream Partners takes interest in Poseidon oil pipeline

07/01/2015 Shell Midstream Partners LP has completed its acquisition of 36% equity interest in Poseidon Oil Pipeline Co. LLC from Equilon Enterprises LLC, a s...

MARKET WATCH: Oil prices decline as US crude inventories post first gain in 9 weeks

07/01/2015 Oil prices on July 1 surrendered much of their gains from the day before after the release of a government report showing the first rise in US crud...

FWS issues Shell letter of authorization on Chukchi Sea lease

07/01/2015 The US Fish & Wildlife Service issued Shell Gulf of Mexico Inc. a letter of authorization (LOA) related to the potential disturbance of polar b...
White Papers

2015 Global Engineering Information Management Solutions Competitive Strategy Innovation and Leadership Award

The Frost & Sullivan Best Practices Awards recognise companies in a variety of regional and global...
Sponsored by

Three Tips to Improve Safety in the Oil Field

Working oil fields will always be tough work with inherent risks. There’s no getting around that. Ther...
Sponsored by

Pipeline Integrity: Best Practices to Prevent, Detect, and Mitigate Commodity Releases

Commodity releases can have catastrophic consequences, so ensuring pipeline integrity is crucial for p...
Sponsored by

AVEVA’s Digital Asset Approach - Defining a new era of collaboration in capital projects and asset operations

There is constant, intensive change in the capital projects and asset life cycle management. New chall...
Sponsored by

Transforming the Oil and Gas Industry with EPPM

With budgets in the billions, timelines spanning years, and life cycles extending over decades, oil an...
Sponsored by

Asset Decommissioning in Oil & Gas: Transforming Business

Asset intensive organizations like Oil and Gas have their own industry specific challenges when it com...
Sponsored by

Squeezing the Green: How to Cut Petroleum Downstream Costs and Optimize Processing Efficiencies with Enterprise Project Portfolio Management Solutions

As the downstream petroleum industry grapples with change in every sector and at every level, includin...
Sponsored by

7 Steps to Improve Oil & Gas Asset Decommissioning

Global competition and volatile markets are creating a challenging business climate for project based ...
Sponsored by
Available Webcasts


OGJ's Midyear Forecast 2015

When Fri, Jul 10, 2015

This webcast is to be presented by OGJ Editor Bob Tippee and Senior Economic Editor Conglin Xu.  They will summarize the Midyear Forecast projections in key categories, note important changes from January’s forecasts, and examine reasons for the adjustments.

register:WEBCAST



On Demand

Predictive Analytics in your digital oilfield - Optimize Production Yield and Reduce Operational Costs

Tue, Jul 7, 2015

Putting predictive analytics to work in your oilfield can help you anticipate failures, plan and schedule work in advance, eliminate emergency work and catastrophic failures, and at the same time you can optimize working capital and improve resource utilization.  When you apply analytic capabilities to critical production assets it is possible to reduce non-productive time and increase your yield.

Learn how IBM's analytics capabilities can be applied to critical production assets with the goal of reducing non-productive time, increasing yield and reducing operations costs.

register:WEBCAST


Cognitive Solutions for Upstream Oil and Gas

Fri, Jun 12, 2015

The oil & gas sector is under pressure on all sides. Reserves are limited and it’s becoming increasingly expensive to find and extract new resources. Margins are already being squeezed in an industry where one wrong decision can cost millions. Analyzing data used in energy exploration can save millions of dollars as we develop ways to predict where and how to extract the world’s massive energy reserves.

This session with IBM Subject Matter Experts will discuss how IBM Cognitive Solutions contribute to the oil and gas industry using predictive analytics and cognitive computing, as well as real time streaming for exploration and drilling.

register:WEBCAST


The Alternative Fuel Movement: Four Need-to-Know Excise Tax Complexities

Thu, Jun 4, 2015

Discussion on how to approach, and ultimately embrace, the alternative fuel market by pulling back the veil on excise tax complexities. Taxes may be an aggravating part of daily operations, but their accuracy is crucial in your path towards business success.

register:WEBCAST


Emerson Micro Motion Videos

Careers at TOTAL

Careers at TOTAL - Videos

More than 600 job openings are now online, watch videos and learn more!

 

Click Here to Watch

Other Oil & Gas Industry Jobs

Search More Job Listings >>
Stay Connected