IEA: Iraq leads increased medium-term OPEC production capacity

The International Energy Agency, revising upward earlier estimates, said it expects production capacity of members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to reach 38.1 million b/d by 2016.

“Crude oil expansion plans in the medium term are moving apace, with capacity now forecast to increase by 2.33 million b/d to 38.1 million b/d by 2016,” IEA said in its latest monthly report.

“Iraq accounts for 80% of the increased capacity, followed by the UAE and Angola,” IEA said, noting that capacity growth is 200,000 b/d higher than its previous forecast for the 2010-16 period.

IEA cautioned that delays to Iranian projects will partly offset the upward revisions to Iraq, where the agency said oil production capacity is forecast to increase by “a sharp 1.87 million b/d, to 4.36 million b/d on average by 2016.”

Aside from Iraq, the only other countries set to contribute significant growth are the UAE, Angola, and Nigeria, which combined will add “a further net 1.3 million b/d by 2016.”

Libya's oil production capacity, disrupted by civil war this year, is expected to rise to 1.15 million b/d in 2012, short of the estimated capacity in 2010 of 1.67 million b/d.

However, IEA said Libyan capacity is expected to continue its rise, reaching 1.61 million b/d in 2014, 1.74 million b/d in 2015, and 1.79 million b/d in 2016.

IEA drew attention to an embargo now being considered by the European Union on nearly 600,000 b/d of Iranian oil imports. That could rise to 1.3 million b/d if other OECD sales are included.

IEA felt it unlikely that a further 1.2 million b/d of Iranian exports, largely to China and India, would be affected.

EU or broader international measures may not be agreed until the end of January 2012, thus allowing operators time to source alternative supplies and coinciding with a seasonal fall in European refiner crude demand in the spring.

However, IEA noted that even a partial ban would nonetheless likely leave Mediterranean refiners “confronting higher prices” for replacement crude from producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia.

Moreover, IEA said Saudi spare capacity “may not be a precise match” for the significant volumes of Iranian heavy crude involved and that European refiners may face “further competitive pressure” if Asian buyers obtain incremental Iranian cargoes at discounted prices.

But IEA still observed that as a result of tighter US and EU sanctions, Iran’s production capacity “is now forecast to decline by 890,000 b/d to just under 3 million b/d by 2016.”

Meanwhile, IEA reported that OPEC oil supply in November rose to the highest level in more than 3 years, up by 620,000 b/d to 30.68 million b/d. It said Saudi Arabia and Libya accounted for 80% of the monthly increase, with smaller increases posted by Nigeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Iran, Qatar, and the UAE.

In its monthly report, IEA said OPEC’s “effective” spare capacity now stands at 3.16 million b/d compared with 3.58 million b/d in October, explaining that “the lower estimate reflects higher OPEC supplies in November.”

Contact Eric Watkins at hippalus@yahoo.com.

Related Articles

PHMSA proposes pipeline accident notification regulations

07/02/2015 The US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration has proposed new federal oil and gas pipeline accident and notification regulations. ...

FourPoint Energy to acquire Anadarko basin assets from Chesapeake

07/02/2015 FourPoint Energy LLC, a privately owned Denver company, plans to acquire oil and gas assets from Chesapeake Energy Corp. subsidiaries Chesapeake Ex...

Puma Energy completes purchase of Murco’s UK refinery, terminals

07/02/2015 Singapore-based Puma Energy Group Pte. has completed its purchase of UK midstream and downstream assets from Murco Petroleum Ltd., a subsidiary of ...

BP to settle federal, state Deepwater Horizon claims for $18.7 billion

07/02/2015 BP Exploration & Production Inc. has agreed in principle to settle all federal and state claims arising from the 2010 Deepwater Horizon inciden...

MARKET WATCH: NYMEX oil prices plummet on crude inventory build, Iran deadline extension

07/02/2015 Oil prices plummeted more than $2/bbl July 1 to settle at a 2-month low on the New York market after a weekly government report showed the first ri...

API to issue recommended practice to address pipeline safety

07/01/2015 The American Petroleum Institute expects to issue a new recommended practice in another few weeks that addresses pipeline safety issues, but the tr...

Shell Midstream Partners takes interest in Poseidon oil pipeline

07/01/2015 Shell Midstream Partners LP has completed its acquisition of 36% equity interest in Poseidon Oil Pipeline Co. LLC from Equilon Enterprises LLC, a s...

MARKET WATCH: Oil prices decline as US crude inventories post first gain in 9 weeks

07/01/2015 Oil prices on July 1 surrendered much of their gains from the day before after the release of a government report showing the first rise in US crud...

FWS issues Shell letter of authorization on Chukchi Sea lease

07/01/2015 The US Fish & Wildlife Service issued Shell Gulf of Mexico Inc. a letter of authorization (LOA) related to the potential disturbance of polar b...
White Papers

UAS Integration for Infrastructure: More than Just Flying

Oil and gas companies recognize the benefits that the use of drones or unmanned aerial systems (UAS) c...

Solutions to Financial Distress Resulting from a Weak Oil and Gas Price Environment

The oil and gas industry is in the midst of a prolonged worldwide downturn in commodity prices. While ...
Sponsored by

2015 Global Engineering Information Management Solutions Competitive Strategy Innovation and Leadership Award

The Frost & Sullivan Best Practices Awards recognise companies in a variety of regional and global...
Sponsored by

Three Tips to Improve Safety in the Oil Field

Working oil fields will always be tough work with inherent risks. There’s no getting around that. Ther...
Sponsored by

Pipeline Integrity: Best Practices to Prevent, Detect, and Mitigate Commodity Releases

Commodity releases can have catastrophic consequences, so ensuring pipeline integrity is crucial for p...
Sponsored by

AVEVA’s Digital Asset Approach - Defining a new era of collaboration in capital projects and asset operations

There is constant, intensive change in the capital projects and asset life cycle management. New chall...
Sponsored by

Transforming the Oil and Gas Industry with EPPM

With budgets in the billions, timelines spanning years, and life cycles extending over decades, oil an...
Sponsored by

Asset Decommissioning in Oil & Gas: Transforming Business

Asset intensive organizations like Oil and Gas have their own industry specific challenges when it com...
Sponsored by
Available Webcasts


The Resilient Oilfield in the Internet of Things World

When Tue, Sep 22, 2015

As we hear about the hype surrounding the Internet of Things, the oil and gas industry is questioning what is different than what is already being done. What is new?  Using sensors and connecting devices is nothing new to our mode of business and in many ways the industry exemplifies many principles of an industrial internet of things. How does the Internet of Things impact the oil and gas industry?

Prolific instrumentation and automation digitized the industry and has changed the approach to business models calling for a systems led approach.  Resilient Systems have the ability to adapt to changing circumstances while maintaining their central purpose.  A resilient system, such as Maximo, allows an asset intensive organization to leverage connected devices by merging real-time asset information with other critical asset information and using that information to create a more agile organization.  

Join this webcast, sponsored by IBM, to learn how about Internet of Things capabilities and resilient systems are impacting the landscape of the oil and gas industry.

register:WEBCAST



On Demand

Taking the Headache out of Fuel License and Exemption Certificates: How to Ensure Compliance

Tue, Aug 25, 2015

This webinar, brought to you by Avalara, will detail the challenges of tax document management, as well as recommend solutions for fuel suppliers. You will learn:

-    Why it’s critical to track business partner licenses and exemption documents
-    The four key business challenges of ensuring tax compliance through document management
-    Best practice business processes to minimize exposure to tax errors

register:WEBCAST


Driving Growth and Efficiency with Deep Insights into Operational Data

Wed, Aug 19, 2015

Capitalizing on today’s momentum in Oil & Gas requires operational excellence based on a clear view of what your business data is telling you. Which is why nearly half* of oil and gas companies have deployed SAP HANA or have it on their roadmap.

Join SAP and Red Hat to learn more about using data to drive process improvements and identify new opportunities with the SAP HANA platform running on Red Hat Enterprise Linux. This webinar will also show how your choice of infrastructure impacts the performance of core business applications and your ability to achieve data-driven insights quickly and reliably.

*48% use SAP, http://go.sap.com/solution/industry/oil-gas.html

register:WEBCAST


OGJ's Midyear Forecast 2015

Fri, Jul 10, 2015

This webcast is to be presented by OGJ Editor Bob Tippee and Senior Economic Editor Conglin Xu.  They will summarize the Midyear Forecast projections in key categories, note important changes from January’s forecasts, and examine reasons for the adjustments.

register:WEBCAST


Emerson Micro Motion Videos

Careers at TOTAL

Careers at TOTAL - Videos

More than 600 job openings are now online, watch videos and learn more!

 

Click Here to Watch

Other Oil & Gas Industry Jobs

Search More Job Listings >>
Stay Connected