Deloitte: DB analyst sees oil averaging $105/bbl in 2012

Deutsche Bank AG analysts believe oil prices generally will be in an overall gradual recovery position going out to 2015, Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist of Deutsche Bank global markets commodities research, said during a Dec. 15 Deloitte LLP Oil & Gas Conference in Houston.

Sieminski forecast West Texas Intermediate crude oil will average $105/bbl on the New York Mercantile Exchange during 2012.

“In 2011, the stock market was driving oil prices,” Sieminski said. “Just recently, we’re starting to see a separation…oil is doing better than the overall market, and I suspect that will be the case going into 2012.”

He noted commodity prices will remain vulnerable while European policy makers work to resolve European sovereign debt issues.

“We do expect Europe will be in a recession in 2012,” Sieminski said of Duetsche Bank analysts.

Global oil demand tends to be driven primarily by economic activity, he said, noting a slowing in China’s economic activity. Yet, Chinese oil demand still continues to grow, and the question is how fast it will grow, Sieminski said.

“We believe China will add about 960,000 b/d of new refinery capacity over the course of 2012 and utilize it,” Sieminski said in a Dec. 9 research note.

“We expect a pick-up in crude demand for direct feedstock as well as crude demand for operational stockpiling purposes,” he added. “China has an operational crude oil stockpile rule of thumb of about 20-25 days of cover. This means that on a full year average, China will likely have to add about 50,000 b/d of additional crude to their operational stockpiles.”

Contact Paula Dittrick at

Related Articles

NGSA asks Congress to pass bills facilitating LNG exports

03/27/2014 The Natural Gas Supply Association called on Congress to support legislation that would facilitate more LNG exports. “Exporting LNG overseas will h...

IHS: Western sanctions indirectly could hinder Russian oil, gas revenues

03/27/2014 Western sanctions imposed against Russian government officials and business executives regarding Russia’s conflict with Ukraine could slow the avai...

US, European energy leaders to discuss gas diversification measures

03/27/2014 Top US government energy officials and their counterparts from other G7 nations will meet early next week to discuss reducing Europe’s heavy relian...

EIA: Cushing inventories down 32% over the last 2 months

03/27/2014 According to the US Energy Information Administration, crude oil inventories at Cushing, Okla., the primary crude oil storage location in the US, d...

Careers at TOTAL

Careers at TOTAL - Videos

More than 600 job openings are now online, watch videos and learn more!


Click Here to Watch

Other Oil & Gas Industry Jobs

Search More Job Listings >>
Stay Connected