By OGJ editors
HOUSTON, Dec. 8 -- Worldwide oil demand for this year’s third quarter will set a record at 88.3 million b/d, said Wood Mackenzie Ltd., Edinburgh, in its latest analysis.
According to the report, provisional data shows that global oil demand for the recent quarter will almost certainly exceed the previous highest quarter—the fourth quarter of 2007—when demand averaged 88 million b/d.
Just 3 years from the onset of the great recession, global oil demand has recovered to the pre-recession peak seen in 2007, the report said.
The analysis finds that world oil demand in 2010 will likely reach an annual average of 86.7 million b/d, 100,000 b/d more than in 2007.
Further, WoodMac expects worldwide oil demand in 2011 to exceed pre-recession levels, averaging a new all-time high of 88.1 million b/d. Oil demand in 2012 will climb to almost 90 million b/d, according to the forecast.
The latest projections from the International Energy Agency, released last month, forecast 2011 worldwide oil demand at 88.5 million b/d, up from this year’s 87.3 million b/d average.
Leading the recovery in oil demand are China and the rest of Asia. WoodMac’s provisional data through September shows that gasoline, diesel, and gas oil demand in China are growing at a rate of about 8%/year. In India, diesel and gas oil are growing at 7%/year and gasoline at 11%/year. As a comparison, this year the Asian market will be 3 million b/d larger than the North American market; in 2008 it was 1.4 million b/d larger, WoodMac said.