IEA: Tanker capacity outpacing demand

By OGJ editors
HOUSTON, Jan. 19
-- Tanker capacity will outpace demand growth in 2010, further depressing freight rates, the International Energy Agency says in its Jan. 15 Oil Market Report.

In 2009, the global recession cut seaborne oil volumes by 5% while oil demand declined 1.5%, IEA says. Westbound shipments from the Persian Gulf fell because of the recession while eastbound shipments from there and West Africa rose because of Asian refinery expansions.

IEA cites reports that tanker demand, adjusted for increased floating storage, fell by 2-3% last year. The global oil tanker fleet, meanwhile, grew 7% from delivery of new tankers representing a total of 30-35 million dwt.

Fleet additions will remain at 5%/year during the next 3 years, IEA says. Orders in place and due for delivery through 2012 represent about 125 million dwt.

“The ability of the industry to negotiate more cancellations of newbuilds will be critical to shipping sector fortunes, although few were obtained during 2009,” IEA says.

Scrapping increased to an estimated 6.8 million dwt in 2009 from 2.8 million dwt in 2008, with most of the increase coming in August and later.

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