CERI updates oil sands production, cost outlook

Guntis Moritis
OGJ Production Editor

HOUSTON, Nov. 4 -- The realistic scenario in the latest Canadian Energy Research Institute outlook expects Alberta oil sands production to increase to 1.7 million b/d by 2015, 2.5 million b/d by 2020, 4.5 million b/d by 2030 before reaching a peak of 5.3 million b/d in 2041. Oil sands production was 1.3 million b/d in 2008.

The scenario assumes crude oil demand starting to increase in 2010 as the world recession ends and crude prices reaching $200/bbl for West Texas Intermediate in 2043.

CERI's outlook notes that during the past year oil sands projects have seen construction costs decline by 15% and operating costs decline by 13%.

It estimates that oil sands project will have a rate of return of 23% for steam-assisted gravity drainage, 11% for mining and upgrading, and 18% for mining without upgrading. Total capital required during its 35-year realistic scenario period is $309 billion.

CERI points out, assuming no technology changes, that by 2043 oil sands natural gas requirements will be three to four times more than current levels, leading to US gas exports into Canada.

In addition, greenhouse gas compliance may cost the industry $130 billion during the next 35 years, CERI says.

Contact Guntis Moritis at guntism@ogjonline.com.

Related Articles

ExxonMobil replaces 103% of 2013 production

02/21/2014 ExxonMobil Corp. replaced 103% of its oil and natural gas production last year with additions to reserves, mostly of crude oil and other liquids.

Hydraulic fracturing stuck in New York policy vacuum

02/01/2014 Persistent institutional indecisiveness by elected officials in New York State has placed the state in the position of not having a statewide polic...

Contact hails Kakwa Montney tight gas-liquids well results

10/16/2013 Contact Exploration Inc., Calgary, said completion of its fourth operated horizontal Middle Montney formation tight gas-liquids well extends the sc...

Watching Government: BC Premier's energy stance

10/14/2013 British Columbia will not budge on its requirements proposed heavy oil export projects must meet, Premier Christy Clark said on Oct. 4. But that do...

Careers at TOTAL

Careers at TOTAL - Videos

More than 600 job openings are now online, watch videos and learn more!


Click Here to Watch

Other Oil & Gas Industry Jobs

Search More Job Listings >>
Stay Connected