Senior Staff Writer
HOUSTON, Jan. 7 -- ExxonMobil Corp. expects global energy demand to increase by an average 1.2%/year during 2005-30, even assuming major energy efficiency gains.
Driven by growing populations and expanding economies, global energy demand is expected to increase to the equivalent of 310 million b/d in 2030 compared with the equivalent of 229 million b/d in 2005. This forecast is down slightly from the 2007 Outlook, which projected a 1.3% average annual growth rate. The changes are spread across various demand sectors and reflect improved energy efficiency.
ExxonMobil's latest annual "Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030" was expanded to include an examination of improved energy efficiency, development of all viable forms of energy, climate risk technology, and public policy.
"The world needs to meet the ever-growing need for reliable and affordable energy while minimizing the effects on the environment," said Rex W. Tillerson, ExxonMobil chairman and chief executive officer.
The outlook is developed through a detailed analysis of about 100 countries. Results are underpinned by economic and population projections.
Among this year's outlook findings:
-- Oil, natural gas, and coal will continue to provide about 80% of the world's energy needs through 2030 because of their abundance, affordability, and availability.
-- Nuclear energy production is expected to increase, riding an anticipated emphasis on low-carbon fuels.
-- Production and use of renewable fuels, such as wind, solar, and biofuels also will escalate rapidly.
-- Transportation, currently responsible for more than half of total oil demand, is expected to expand substantially globally. From 2005-30, demand in developed countries is expected to be relatively stable because efficiency improvements will offset demand from an increasing number of vehicles. In contrast, demand for transportation fuels in developing countries will likely more than double.
Global carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise by close to 30% during 2005-30 even with improved energy efficiency and growth in nuclear and renewable energy sources. ExxonMobil expects CO2 emissions will begin declining in the US and Europe by 2030. But those declines will be offset by larger increases in developing countries.