By OGJ editors
HOUSTON, Sept. 10 -- The International Energy Agency has reduced its outlook for 2008 and 2009 oil demand, citing weaker-than-expected oil deliveries in member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
In its latest monthly Oil Market Report IEA says that worldwide oil demand will average 86.8 million b/d this year. This is revised from the agency's previous forecast of 86.9 million b/d.
And IEA now sees 2009 oil demand averaging 87.6 million b/d, down from the estimate of 87.8 million b/d released a month ago.
Oil demand in the OECD will average 48.4 million b/d in 2008, down 800,000 b/d from last year and 47.9 million b/d in 2009. These figures are lower than previous estimates as a result of significant revisions in both North America and the Pacific, IEA said.
The Paris-based agency said data suggest that weaker economic conditions and high prices during this past summer, when oil prices reached an all-time peak, had more of an impact on demand than expected, notably in the US.
Further, the report said that oil demand in the US may be poised for a more permanent downward trend amid sustained high prices and sluggish economic activity.
IEA forecasts that non-OECD oil demand will average 38.3 million b/d in 2008, up 4% from 2007 and 50,000 b/d higher than previously estimated. Next year's demand is pegged at an average 39.8 million b/d, 20,000 b/d higher than in the agency's last report.
These upward revisions are mostly related to a reassessment of China's third-quarter 2008 demand, gas oil use in India, and fuel oil consumption in Iran, IEA said.
