Mexico sees 2.1-3.4 million b/d oil output to 2016

Eric Watkins
Senior Correspondent

LOS ANGELES, Dec. 14 -- Mexico's ministry of energy has released the country's oil outlook for 2006-16, providing best-case and worst-case scenarios for the outlook period, as well as key recommendations for development of state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos.

Under the best-case scenario, Pemex production levels will average some 3.255 million b/d over the period, reaching 3.4 million b/d in 2016. Under the worst case scenario, production will average 2.5 million b/d during 2006-16 and fall to 2.1 million b/d by 2016.

According to Energy Minister Georgia Kessel, the best-case scenario will depend on annual investments of some 157 billion pesos as well as new production from Chicontepec and from Gulf of Mexico deep water.

However, Kessel said that developing deepwater reserves "requires, in addition to large investments, carrying out works in extremely complex conditions and above all a multiplication of Pemex's operating capacity that would be impossible under current conditions."

More broadly, she said, "We should design the technical, legal, and economic instruments to strengthen Pemex so it can generate the investments, experience, and employment Mexicans demand. I'm confident that with the help of our legislators, we'll find the solutions."

Contact Eric Watkins at hippalus@yahoo.com.

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