By OGJ editors
HOUSTON, July 8 -- World tanker demand and supply continues to be volatile and unpredictable, said Erik Ranheim, research and projects manager for the International Association of Independent Tanker Owners (Intertanko).
He sees future world tanker demand being driven by oil demand in China. A growing world population appears to indicate growing oil demand, Ranheim said.
Despite growing Chinese oil demand, the volumes imported are not yet enough to generate big increases in tanker demand, he said. The US economy, which accounts for 25% of tanker demand, must recover before global tanker demand will improve.
Tanker demand also is linked with volatile oil demand, he said, pointing to volatility in crude oil production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Russia has increased oil exports, which could boost world tanker demand. Russia and China have become energy partners, but increased crude oil exports to China are likely to be transported through pipelines.
Meanwhile, 95% of the Russian oil exports is reaching neighboring countries either by pipeline or in relatively short sea voyages, he said. European oil imports from Russia have increased at the expense of European imports from the Middle East, he noted.
Importers are looking for ways to become less dependent on Middle East oil, thus adding little to long-haul trades. Oil imports into Europe and Asia might have a larger pipeline share. But in the Caspian Sea region, pipeline rates have proven more expensive than tanker rates, he said.
Reagrding the supply side, Ranheim said tanker companies will have to order new tankers starting in 2006 in order to meet an anticipated 2010 demand peak.
