Diesel will experience higher future demand than gasoline, fuel oil

David Nakamura
Refining-Petrochemical Editor

Houston, June 5 -- Future worldwide demand growth for motor fuels will focus on diesel, while demand growth for gasoline and fuel oil will stagnate. This is according to Jean Sentenac, Chairman and CEO of Axens, Rueil-Malmaison, France, in the keynote address to the CatCon2002 Conference here.

The trend will be even more pronounced in Europe, where refiners will have to deal with more-stringent fuel regulations and clean air standards. Sentenac said that, in combustion engines, diesel is a more efficient fuel and creates fewer emissions.

The ratio of gasoline to diesel demand growth in motor fuels has steadily decreased in the past 15 years. In Europe, this ratio has declined from 1.6:1 in 1986 to less than 1:1 in 2000. While gasoline demand is still growing, it is at a lesser rate than that of diesel demand.

In the meantime, fuel oil is steadily losing market share to diesel and kerosine, and will continue to do so for the next 10 years. Sentenac predicts that diesel and kerosine will account for 37% of worldwide oil consumption in 2010, up from less than 35% in 2000.

Government-mandated fuel-sulfur reductions will be the largest factor affecting future fuel usage, Sentenac predicted. Other fuel specifications that will also impact refinery operations including polyaromatic hydrocarbons, olefins, and total aromatics.

After sulfur, however, refiners' biggest concern will be carbon dioxide emissions. Sentenac predicts a 25% increase in global CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2010 due to increased use of hydrocarbons. Higher demand for hydrodesulfurization will create an additional need for hydrogen from hydrocarbons, which could increase CO2 emissions even further.

According to Sentenac, conventional diesel emits less CO2 emissions than gasoline, diesel from Fischer-Tropsch gas-to-liquids processes, and even LPG. Compressed natural gas has lower emissions but does not yet have the infrastructure to widely compete with diesel fuel.

Related Articles

BASF-Total venture starts up 10th furnace at Port Arthur steam cracker

03/24/2014

BASF Total Petrochemicals LCC (BTP) reported the startup of a 10th furnace at its steam cracker facility in Port Arthur, Tex.

Phillips 66 considers splitter at Sweeny refinery

03/21/2014 Phillips 66 is evaluating the potential for the addition of a condensate splitter near its 247,000-b/d Sweeny refinery in Old Ocean, Tex., just sou...

Second small diesel refinery planned for North Dakota

03/21/2014 Quantum Energy Inc. (QEI), Tempe, Ariz., said it has secured land for the construction of a 20,000-b/d grassroots hydroskimming refinery in North D...

Flint Hills settles Port Arthur pollution case

03/20/2014 Flint Hills Resources (FHR) has reached a settlement with the US federal government to implement innovative technologies to control harmful air pol...

Careers at TOTAL

Careers at TOTAL - Videos

More than 600 job openings are now online, watch videos and learn more!

 

Click Here to Watch

Other Oil & Gas Industry Jobs

Search More Job Listings >>
Stay Connected