Oil markets take on bearish tone amid softening demand, rising non-OPEC output, sagging gasoline prices

Oil markets have suddenly taken on a distinctly bearish tone. As expected, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries took no action at its meeting this week in Vienna. Taken by itself, that would leave the market pretty much in balance for now, as OPEC has repeatedly noted. But some analysts have claimed that the seasonal demand pick-up that begins near the end of the third quarter would set the stage for an oil price spike later in the year or early next year, if OPEC were to do nothing on supply-and especially if Iraqi oil supplies were still being withheld from the market.

What was unexpected was the collapse of the US-UK bid to get "smart sanctions" adopted by the United Nations. This modification to the sanctions regime targeting Iraq would, in theory, loosen constraints on Iraqi imports of goods and services that would benefit Iraqi citizens while tightening the screws on Saddam Hussein's ability to rebuild his arsenal and smuggle oil. It was even the initial, tentative consideration of such a proposal that spawned Baghdad's cutoff of its legal oil exports, covered by the UN Security Council oil-for-aid program in the first place. But the US and UK were blindsided by a threatened Russia veto of the plan, and the proposal was tabled. Russia wants a more-comprehensive sanctions regime that is acceptable to Iraq to be put in place as a prelude to an eventual lifting of all sanctions against Iraq (considering that Iraq's stance never changes-that all sanctions should be lifted immediately-this would be, no doubt, the best possible outcome for Baghdad geopolitically, even if it doesn't nothing to enhance Saddam's financial situation, which would be the case with a continued cutoff of legal Iraqi exports). What happened, instead, was the UN simply agreed to roll over the existing sanctions regime for another 5 months.

At the same time, gasoline prices in the US-the other primary driver in oil markets of late-continue to fall. That's certainly counterintuitive at a the peak of the summer driving season, but it can be explained by the frantic scrambling by US refiners to make or import enough gasoline to meet the seasonal surge in demand. The brimming stocks situation has sliced about a quarter from wholesale gasoline prices in the past couple of months, and that has helped take some of the heat off crude oil prices.

Now OPEC is starting to talk about considering an emergency meeting-ahead of its next regularly scheduled ministerial meeting, on Sept. 26, should the resumption of Iraqi oil exports undermine prices to the point where the OPEC basket marker price falls below the bottom of the group's official $22-28/bbl target price band.

That's pretty much in line with what the Canadian Energy Research Institute is projecting. The Calgary think tank contends that much of the strength in oil markets lately has emanated from concerns over US gasoline stocks earlier in the quarter and over Iraq's potential mischief. With these two elements largely neutralized, that suggests oil prices will continue to slide in the months ahead, and OPEC will be forced to consider production quota cuts again soon, perhaps early in 2002.

"The consensus view for the past several months has been that OPEC will have to increase quotas in the third or fourth quarter this year, to keep a lid on oil prices in the face of seasonal demand," CERI said. The analyst holds to its view that relatively weak world oil demand growth, stemming from the slowdown in the world economy, and solid non-OPEC supply growth will alleviate the need for an OPEC quota increase later this year.

"CERI continues to expect that OPEC in fact will have to cut its quotas early in 2002 to keep crude prices above its target floor (about $24/bbl for WTI)," the analyst said. "Even if quotas are cut, forward demand cover could jump to 56 days in first quarter 2002, compared to our estimate of an average 55 days over the last 3 quarters of 2001."

CERI also dismisses the notion that a shortfall of heating oil stocks in the winter will cause another spike in oil prices. That scenario evolved from the similar concerns over gasoline stocks, which have since evaporated. The analyst contends that the same self-fulfilling prophecy will come about with heating oil: "Ample crude stocks will keep a lid on product prices. Any fear of shortages will push heating oil prices up relative to crude and increase refining margins, which in turn will encourage higher crude runs, build heating oil stocks, and alleviate the fear of shortage."

If supply and demand are roughly in balance, then, it follows that oil prices probably will stay relatively flat until further signs of that weakened demand materialize. Ensuing softness in oil prices will encourage OPEC to trim output again. Remember, though, that the oil-for-aid program comes up for renewal in December-exactly the same time of year that Iraq pulled its oil off the market in 2000. And the rest of OPEC (mainly Saudi Arabia) stepped in to take up the slack, keeping oil prices from going through the roof at a period of peak demand.

The betting here is that Iraq will stir up trouble again as the program renewal deadline approaches. The US and UK certainly will revive their smart-sanctions proposal, and warming relations between presidents Bush and Putin suggest that it may make more headway the next time around. And North Sea output always falls in the summer and comes roaring back in the fall; the same thing happens on Alaska's North Slope. So a very possible scenario is one of OPEC cutting output in September (if not sooner) amid a weakening demand outlook and rising non-OPEC supply, then restoring those cuts in December. And despite the rollercoaster ride, the average price of oil over the year probably will remain pretty much where it is now.

How long the Saudis want to keep this up (and in the final analysis, that's what this all about, anyway) depends to a large extent how much market share it loses to non-OPEC nations. Its fellow members are not really that much of concern, given the swing-supply leverage the oil giant has and the limited capacity growth potential for other OPEC members. But the Caspian, Russia, Angola, Sudan, et al., are contributing to what shapes up as the biggest year-to-year non-OPEC supply jump in years. More on that subject next week.

OGJ Hotline Market Pulse
Latest Prices as of July 6, 2001

null

NOTE: DATES FOR IPE BRENT AND GAS OIL ACTUALLY REFLECT THE LATEST 5 DAYS OF TRADING (June 29-July 5), NOT ACTUALLY BROKEN BY THE JULY 4 HOLIDAY AS THE DATE AXIS INDICATES.

Click here to enlarge image

null

Click here to enlarge image

null

Nymex unleaded

Click here to enlarge image

null

Nymex heating oil

Click here to enlarge image

null

IPE Gas oil

Click here to enlarge image

null

Nymex natural gas

Click here to enlarge image

null

NOTE: Because of holidays, lack of data availability, or rescheduling of chart publication, prices shown may not always reflect the immediate preceding 5 days.

*Futures price, next month delivery. #Spot price.

Related Articles

UKCS report cites need for deep cost cuts

02/24/2015

The struggling producing industry on the UK Continental Shelf needs deep cost cuts, according to the Oil & Gas UK’s Activity Survey 2015.

IHS: Crude transported by Keystone XL would be consumed in US

02/24/2015 Most, if not all, of the crude oil that would be transported via the proposed Keystone XL pipeline to the US Gulf Coast would not be exported, and ...

MARKET WATCH: NYMEX crude oil prices retreat to below $50/bbl

02/24/2015 US light, sweet crude oil prices for April delivery settled below $50/bbl on the New York market Feb. 23, and analyst said oversupply fears were li...

API: US oil product demand reached highest January level since 2008

02/23/2015 US oil product demand rose 1.5% year-to-year to an average 19.2 million b/d in January, its highest level for the month since 2008, the American Pe...

MARKET WATCH: NYMEX crude oil prices slip on ample oil supply

02/23/2015 US light, sweet crude oil prices for March delivery fell during Feb. 20 trading and settled above $50/bbl on the New York market. Some analysts sug...

EOG Resources’ budget down 40% to $4.9-5.1 billion

02/20/2015 EOG Resources Inc., Houston, plans a capital budget of $4.9-5.1 billion in 2015 including production facilities and midstream expenditures, represe...

BHI’s rig count reaches 5-year low; forecast projects more losses

02/20/2015 The US drilling rig count fell 48 units—markedly fewer compared with declines in recent weeks—to settle at 1,310 rigs working during the week ended...

More pragmatism urged for developing Eastern Mediterranean gas

02/20/2015 Eastern Mediterranean nations should abandon inflated expectations and adopt more realistic approaches to developing their natural gas resources, s...

MARKET WATCH: NYMEX crude oil prices down on US supply build

02/20/2015 US light, sweet crude oil prices for March delivery settled at slightly above $51/bbl on the New York market Feb. 19 after a government weekly repo...
White Papers

Pipeline Integrity: Best Practices to Prevent, Detect, and Mitigate Commodity Releases

Commodity releases can have catastrophic consequences, so ensuring pipeline integrity is crucial for p...
Sponsored by

AVEVA’s Digital Asset Approach - Defining a new era of collaboration in capital projects and asset operations

There is constant, intensive change in the capital projects and asset life cycle management. New chall...
Sponsored by

Transforming the Oil and Gas Industry with EPPM

With budgets in the billions, timelines spanning years, and life cycles extending over decades, oil an...
Sponsored by

Asset Decommissioning in Oil & Gas: Transforming Business

Asset intensive organizations like Oil and Gas have their own industry specific challenges when it com...
Sponsored by

Squeezing the Green: How to Cut Petroleum Downstream Costs and Optimize Processing Efficiencies with Enterprise Project Portfolio Management Solutions

As the downstream petroleum industry grapples with change in every sector and at every level, includin...
Sponsored by

7 Steps to Improve Oil & Gas Asset Decommissioning

Global competition and volatile markets are creating a challenging business climate for project based ...
Sponsored by

The impact of aging infrastructure in process manufacturing industries

Process manufacturing companies in the oil and gas, utilities, chemicals and natural resource industri...
Sponsored by

What is System Level Thermo-Fluid Analysis?

This paper will explain some of the fundamentals of System Level Thermo-Fluid Analysis and demonstrate...
Available Webcasts


Cognitive Solutions for Upstream Oil and Gas

When Fri, Jun 12, 2015

The oil & gas sector is under pressure on all sides. Reserves are limited and it’s becoming increasingly expensive to find and extract new resources. Margins are already being squeezed in an industry where one wrong decision can cost millions. Analyzing data used in energy exploration can save millions of dollars as we develop ways to predict where and how to extract the world’s massive energy reserves.

This session with IBM Subject Matter Experts will discuss how IBM Cognitive Solutions contribute to the oil and gas industry using predictive analytics and cognitive computing, as well as real time streaming for exploration and drilling.

register:WEBCAST


The Alternative Fuel Movement: Four Need-to-Know Excise Tax Complexities

When Thu, Jun 4, 2015

Discussion on how to approach, and ultimately embrace, the alternative fuel market by pulling back the veil on excise tax complexities. Taxes may be an aggravating part of daily operations, but their accuracy is crucial in your path towards business success.

register:WEBCAST



On Demand

Prevention, Detection and Mitigation of pipeline leaks in the modern world

Thu, Apr 30, 2015

Preventing, detecting and mitigating leaks or commodity releases from pipelines are a top priority for all pipeline companies. This presentation will look at various aspects related to preventing, detecting and mitigating pipeline commodity releases from a generic and conceptual point of view, while at the same time look at the variety of offerings available from Schneider Electric to meet some of the requirements associated with pipeline integrity management. 

register:WEBCAST


Global LNG: Adjusting to New Realities

Fri, Mar 20, 2015

Oil & Gas Journal’s March 20, 2015, webcast will look at how global LNG trade will be affected over the next 12-24 months by falling crude oil prices and changing patterns and pressures of demand. Will US LNG production play a role in balancing markets? Or will it add to a growing global oversupply of LNG for markets remote from easier natural gas supply? Will new buyers with marginal credit, smaller requirements, or great need for flexibility begin to look attractive to suppliers? How will high-cost, mega-projects in Australia respond to new construction cost trends?

register:WEBCAST


Emerson Micro Motion Videos

Careers at TOTAL

Careers at TOTAL - Videos

More than 600 job openings are now online, watch videos and learn more!

 

Click Here to Watch

Other Oil & Gas Industry Jobs

Search More Job Listings >>
Stay Connected