EIA sees 32% gain in US energy demand by 2020


The US Energy Information Administration says with a growing economy, US energy demand is projected to increase 32% from 1999 to 2020, reaching 127 quadrillion btu, assuming no changes in Federal laws and regulations.

But it said faster or slower economic growth, or use of energy-efficient and renewable energy sources, could change the forecast.

EIA's annual energy outlook noted that economic growth is a major determinant of both energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions. Its reference case assumes US gross domestic product (GDP) will grow at 3%/year from 1999 through 2020.

But it said if the economy grows 3.5%/year, the demand for energy in 2020 is projected to be 7% higher than the reference case level of 127 quadrillion btu, and projected carbon dioxide emissions increase by 152 million metric tons carbon equivalent, or 7%, in 2020, compared to the reference case.

It said if the economy grows 2.5%/year, energy demand is projected to be 6% lower in 2020 than in the reference case, and projected carbon dioxide emissions would be reduced by 125 million metric tons carbon equivalent, or 6%, in 2020.

EIA said in its reference case, the energy intensity of the US economy, measured as energy used per dollar of GDP, is projected to decline 1.6%/year through 2020 as more efficient energy-using technologies become available and penetrate the market. In a high technology case, more rapid improvement in the cost and efficiencies of advanced technologies and in their adoption than assumed in the reference case is projected to lower energy demand by 6% and carbon dioxide emissions by 166 million tonnes carbon equivalent, or 8%, in 2020, relative to the reference case

It said technology could also develop at a slower rate than in the reference case. Assuming that the efficiencies of energy-using technologies do not change from those available today increases projected energy demand by 5% and carbon dioxide emissions by 116 million tonnes carbon equivalent, or 6%, in 2020.

EIA said its reference case reflects legislation in eight states to ban or limit the use of methyl tertiary butyl ether in reformulated gasoline. In an alternative case, it assumed MTBE and other ethers would be banned throughout the US with a waiver of the 2% oxygen requirement. It said that would raise gasoline prices 3 to 4�/gal (1999 dollars) in the 2004 to 2006 period, compared to the reference case.

It said the reference case assumes technology improvements in oil and natural as exploration and production that lower costs and improve finding and success rates. Alternative cases that assume more rapid and slower technology improvements than in the reference case show the impact on projected gas prices. In the reference case, projected gas prices decline from more than $5/Mcf in 2000 to $3.13/Mcf in 2020 (1999 dollars). In 2020, prices are projected to range from $4.23/Mcf in the slow technology case to $2.50 in the rapid technology case.

EIA said natural gas projections also are highly sensitive to the assumptions for the domestic resource base. Gas prices in 2020 are projected to reach $2.62/Mcf in a high oil and gas resource case, which assumes 20% higher conventional resources and inferred reserves and 40% higher unconventional gas resources, and $4.53/Mcf in a low oil and gas resource case, which assumes 20 and 40% lower resources, respectively.

In 2020, projected natural gas production ranges from 24.6 tcf to 30.4 tcf in the low and high resource cases, compared to 29 tcf in the reference case. In 2020, crude oil production is projected to range from 4.6 to 5.5 million b/d in the same resource cases, compared to 5.1 million b/d in the reference case.

Related Articles

ExxonMobil spending down 12% to $34 billion

03/04/2015

ExxonMobil Corp. plans $34 billion in capital spending during 2015, representing a 12% decrease from 2014.

Western Australia’s EPA approves Gorgon LNG fourth train

03/04/2015 The Environmental Protection Authority of Western Australia (EPAWA) has approved plans for expansion of the Gorgon-Jansz LNG project on Barrow Isla...

Tawke output to rise in Kurdistan region

03/04/2015 Production from Tawke oil field in the Kurdistan region of Iraq will begin increasing this spring toward new capacity of 200,000 b/d, reports Bijan...

EIA forecasts continued rise in US oil production from gulf

03/03/2015 Crude oil production from the Gulf of Mexico will reach 1.52 million b/d in 2015 and 1.61 million b/d in 2016—or respectively 16% and 17% of total ...

Shell moves to business-as-usual plan for strike-impacted refineries

03/03/2015 As the United Steelworkers union (USW) strike enters its fifth week, Royal Dutch Shell PLC, which serves as lead company for National Oil Bargainin...

Shell Canada withdraws application for Pierre River heavy oil project

03/03/2015

Shell Canada Ltd. has withdrawn its regulatory application for the proposed Pierre River heavy oil mine north of Fort McMurray.

Update of earlier NAM study still finds EPA ozone proposal costly

03/02/2015 The US Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed 65 ppb ozone standard could reduce US gross domestic product by $140 billion/year and create $1.1...

GOM REVENUE SHARING-1 Lease sales drive gulf OCS revenues

03/02/2015 The Gulf of Mexico (GOM) Energy Security Act of 2006 (GOMESA) provides for sharing offshore lease revenues in the GOM Outer Continental Shelf (OCS).

Pennsylvania governor asks Obama for stronger crude-by-rail rules

03/02/2015 Noting that 60-70 trains/week carry Bakken crude oil across Pennsylvania to the Philadelphia area or other East Coast refineries, Gov. Tom Wolf (D)...
White Papers

Transforming the Oil and Gas Industry with EPPM

With budgets in the billions, timelines spanning years, and life cycles extending over decades, oil an...
Sponsored by

Asset Decommissioning in Oil & Gas: Transforming Business

Asset intensive organizations like Oil and Gas have their own industry specific challenges when it com...
Sponsored by

Squeezing the Green: How to Cut Petroleum Downstream Costs and Optimize Processing Efficiencies with Enterprise Project Portfolio Management Solutions

As the downstream petroleum industry grapples with change in every sector and at every level, includin...
Sponsored by

7 Steps to Improve Oil & Gas Asset Decommissioning

Global competition and volatile markets are creating a challenging business climate for project based ...
Sponsored by

The impact of aging infrastructure in process manufacturing industries

Process manufacturing companies in the oil and gas, utilities, chemicals and natural resource industri...
Sponsored by

What is System Level Thermo-Fluid Analysis?

This paper will explain some of the fundamentals of System Level Thermo-Fluid Analysis and demonstrate...

Accurate Thermo-Fluid Simulation in Real Time Environments

The crux of any task undertaken in System Level Thermo-Fluid Analysis is striking a balance between ti...

6 ways for Energy, Chemical and Oil and Gas Companies to Avert the Impending Workforce Crisis

As many as half of the skilled workers in energy, chemical and oil & gas industries are quickly he...
Sponsored by
Available Webcasts

On Demand

Global LNG: Adjusting to New Realities

Fri, Mar 20, 2015

Oil & Gas Journal’s March 20, 2015, webcast will look at how global LNG trade will be affected over the next 12-24 months by falling crude oil prices and changing patterns and pressures of demand. Will US LNG production play a role in balancing markets? Or will it add to a growing global oversupply of LNG for markets remote from easier natural gas supply? Will new buyers with marginal credit, smaller requirements, or great need for flexibility begin to look attractive to suppliers? How will high-cost, mega-projects in Australia respond to new construction cost trends?

register:WEBCAST


US Midstream at a Crossroads

Fri, Mar 6, 2015

Oil & Gas Journal’s Mar. 6, 2015, webcast will focus on US midstream companies at an inflection point in their development in response to more than 6 years shale oil and gas production growth. Major infrastructure—gas plants, gathering systems, and takeaway pipelines—have been built. Major fractionation hubs have expanded. Given the radically changed pricing environment since mid-2014, where do processors go from here? What is the fate of large projects caught in mid-development? How to producers and processors cooperate to ensure a sustainable and profitable future? This event will serve to set the discussion table for the annual GPA Convention in San Antonio, Apr. 13-16, 2015.

This event is sponsored by Leidos Engineering.

register:WEBCAST


The Future of US Refining

Fri, Feb 6, 2015

Oil & Gas Journal’s Feb. 6, 2015, webcast will focus on the future of US refining as various forces this year conspire to pull the industry in different directions. Lower oil prices generally reduce feedstock costs, but they have also lowered refiners’ returns, as 2015 begins with refined products priced at lows not seen in years. If lower per-barrel crude prices dampen production of lighter crudes among shale plays, what will happen to refiners’ plans to export more barrels of lighter crudes? And as always, refiners will be affected by government regulations, particularly those that suppress demand, increase costs, or limit access to markets or supply.

register:WEBCAST


Oil & Gas Journal’s Forecast & Review/Worldwide Pipeline Construction 2015

Fri, Jan 30, 2015

The  Forecast & Review/Worldwide Pipeline Construction 2015 Webcast will address Oil & Gas Journal’s outlooks for the oil market and pipeline construction in a year of turbulence. Based on two annual special reports, the webcast will be presented by OGJ Editor Bob Tippee and OGJ Managing Editor-Technology Chris Smith.
The Forecast & Review portion of the webcast will identify forces underlying the collapse in crude oil prices and assess prospects for changes essential to recovery—all in the context of geopolitical pressures buffeting the market.

register:WEBCAST


Emerson Micro Motion Videos

Careers at TOTAL

Careers at TOTAL - Videos

More than 600 job openings are now online, watch videos and learn more!

 

Click Here to Watch

Other Oil & Gas Industry Jobs

Search More Job Listings >>
Stay Connected