EIA sees 32% gain in US energy demand by 2020


The US Energy Information Administration says with a growing economy, US energy demand is projected to increase 32% from 1999 to 2020, reaching 127 quadrillion btu, assuming no changes in Federal laws and regulations.

But it said faster or slower economic growth, or use of energy-efficient and renewable energy sources, could change the forecast.

EIA's annual energy outlook noted that economic growth is a major determinant of both energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions. Its reference case assumes US gross domestic product (GDP) will grow at 3%/year from 1999 through 2020.

But it said if the economy grows 3.5%/year, the demand for energy in 2020 is projected to be 7% higher than the reference case level of 127 quadrillion btu, and projected carbon dioxide emissions increase by 152 million metric tons carbon equivalent, or 7%, in 2020, compared to the reference case.

It said if the economy grows 2.5%/year, energy demand is projected to be 6% lower in 2020 than in the reference case, and projected carbon dioxide emissions would be reduced by 125 million metric tons carbon equivalent, or 6%, in 2020.

EIA said in its reference case, the energy intensity of the US economy, measured as energy used per dollar of GDP, is projected to decline 1.6%/year through 2020 as more efficient energy-using technologies become available and penetrate the market. In a high technology case, more rapid improvement in the cost and efficiencies of advanced technologies and in their adoption than assumed in the reference case is projected to lower energy demand by 6% and carbon dioxide emissions by 166 million tonnes carbon equivalent, or 8%, in 2020, relative to the reference case

It said technology could also develop at a slower rate than in the reference case. Assuming that the efficiencies of energy-using technologies do not change from those available today increases projected energy demand by 5% and carbon dioxide emissions by 116 million tonnes carbon equivalent, or 6%, in 2020.

EIA said its reference case reflects legislation in eight states to ban or limit the use of methyl tertiary butyl ether in reformulated gasoline. In an alternative case, it assumed MTBE and other ethers would be banned throughout the US with a waiver of the 2% oxygen requirement. It said that would raise gasoline prices 3 to 4�/gal (1999 dollars) in the 2004 to 2006 period, compared to the reference case.

It said the reference case assumes technology improvements in oil and natural as exploration and production that lower costs and improve finding and success rates. Alternative cases that assume more rapid and slower technology improvements than in the reference case show the impact on projected gas prices. In the reference case, projected gas prices decline from more than $5/Mcf in 2000 to $3.13/Mcf in 2020 (1999 dollars). In 2020, prices are projected to range from $4.23/Mcf in the slow technology case to $2.50 in the rapid technology case.

EIA said natural gas projections also are highly sensitive to the assumptions for the domestic resource base. Gas prices in 2020 are projected to reach $2.62/Mcf in a high oil and gas resource case, which assumes 20% higher conventional resources and inferred reserves and 40% higher unconventional gas resources, and $4.53/Mcf in a low oil and gas resource case, which assumes 20 and 40% lower resources, respectively.

In 2020, projected natural gas production ranges from 24.6 tcf to 30.4 tcf in the low and high resource cases, compared to 29 tcf in the reference case. In 2020, crude oil production is projected to range from 4.6 to 5.5 million b/d in the same resource cases, compared to 5.1 million b/d in the reference case.

Related Articles

EIA: Eagle Ford, Bakken oil production to fall in April

03/10/2015 US shale oil production is expected to increase by a mere 1,000 b/d from March to April, according to the Energy Information Administration’s Drill...

EIA: Monthly average Brent price up for first time in 8 months

03/10/2015 North Sea Brent crude oil prices averaged $58/bbl in February—up $10/bbl from the January average—representing the first monthly average price incr...

API is examining dilbit’s environmental impacts when released

03/10/2015 The American Petroleum Institute is studying the properties of diluted bitumen (dilbit) and expects to develop findings about how oil sands crude b...

Foxtrot finds oil, gas offshore Ivory Coast

03/09/2015 The Marlin North-1 well drilled by Foxtrot International LDC, Abidjan, offshore Ivory Coast flowed gas and oil from the Turonian and Lower Senonian...

CNOOC boosts oil production from Qinhuangdao field

03/09/2015 China National Offshore Oil Corp. Ltd. reported startup of oil production from a comprehensive adjustment project in Qinhuangdao 32-6 field. The pr...

Fire hits Pemex’s Tula refinery

03/09/2015 Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) is investigating a fire that took place on Mar. 6 at the resid hydrodesulfurization plant of its 315,000-b/d Miguel Hid...

GOP senators ask Obama to stop attacks on OCS revenue sharing

03/09/2015 Seven Republican US senators asked US President Barack Obama to reconsider his proposal to deprive Gulf Coast states of a fair share of revenue fro...

Speaker suggests how Russian regime change might occur

03/09/2015 They follow a warning reported here 2 weeks ago from Alexander J. Motyl, professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark, that military...

Low crude prices pressure Latin American producers, CSIS forum told

03/09/2015 Depressed crude oil prices are putting new pressure on Latin American producing countries to improve terms if they expect to attract outside invest...
White Papers

Pipeline Integrity: Best Practices to Prevent, Detect, and Mitigate Commodity Releases

Commodity releases can have catastrophic consequences, so ensuring pipeline integrity is crucial for p...
Sponsored by

AVEVA’s Digital Asset Approach - Defining a new era of collaboration in capital projects and asset operations

There is constant, intensive change in the capital projects and asset life cycle management. New chall...
Sponsored by

Transforming the Oil and Gas Industry with EPPM

With budgets in the billions, timelines spanning years, and life cycles extending over decades, oil an...
Sponsored by

Asset Decommissioning in Oil & Gas: Transforming Business

Asset intensive organizations like Oil and Gas have their own industry specific challenges when it com...
Sponsored by

Squeezing the Green: How to Cut Petroleum Downstream Costs and Optimize Processing Efficiencies with Enterprise Project Portfolio Management Solutions

As the downstream petroleum industry grapples with change in every sector and at every level, includin...
Sponsored by

7 Steps to Improve Oil & Gas Asset Decommissioning

Global competition and volatile markets are creating a challenging business climate for project based ...
Sponsored by

The impact of aging infrastructure in process manufacturing industries

Process manufacturing companies in the oil and gas, utilities, chemicals and natural resource industri...
Sponsored by

What is System Level Thermo-Fluid Analysis?

This paper will explain some of the fundamentals of System Level Thermo-Fluid Analysis and demonstrate...
Available Webcasts


The Alternative Fuel Movement: Four Need-to-Know Excise Tax Complexities

When Thu, Jun 4, 2015

Discussion on how to approach, and ultimately embrace, the alternative fuel market by pulling back the veil on excise tax complexities. Taxes may be an aggravating part of daily operations, but their accuracy is crucial in your path towards business success.

register:WEBCAST



On Demand

Prevention, Detection and Mitigation of pipeline leaks in the modern world

Thu, Apr 30, 2015

Preventing, detecting and mitigating leaks or commodity releases from pipelines are a top priority for all pipeline companies. This presentation will look at various aspects related to preventing, detecting and mitigating pipeline commodity releases from a generic and conceptual point of view, while at the same time look at the variety of offerings available from Schneider Electric to meet some of the requirements associated with pipeline integrity management. 

register:WEBCAST


Global LNG: Adjusting to New Realities

Fri, Mar 20, 2015

Oil & Gas Journal’s March 20, 2015, webcast will look at how global LNG trade will be affected over the next 12-24 months by falling crude oil prices and changing patterns and pressures of demand. Will US LNG production play a role in balancing markets? Or will it add to a growing global oversupply of LNG for markets remote from easier natural gas supply? Will new buyers with marginal credit, smaller requirements, or great need for flexibility begin to look attractive to suppliers? How will high-cost, mega-projects in Australia respond to new construction cost trends?

register:WEBCAST


US Midstream at a Crossroads

Fri, Mar 6, 2015

Oil & Gas Journal’s Mar. 6, 2015, webcast will focus on US midstream companies at an inflection point in their development in response to more than 6 years shale oil and gas production growth. Major infrastructure—gas plants, gathering systems, and takeaway pipelines—have been built. Major fractionation hubs have expanded. Given the radically changed pricing environment since mid-2014, where do processors go from here? What is the fate of large projects caught in mid-development? How to producers and processors cooperate to ensure a sustainable and profitable future? This event will serve to set the discussion table for the annual GPA Convention in San Antonio, Apr. 13-16, 2015.

This event is sponsored by Leidos Engineering.

register:WEBCAST


Emerson Micro Motion Videos

Careers at TOTAL

Careers at TOTAL - Videos

More than 600 job openings are now online, watch videos and learn more!

 

Click Here to Watch

Other Oil & Gas Industry Jobs

Search More Job Listings >>
Stay Connected