EIA sees 32% gain in US energy demand by 2020


The US Energy Information Administration says with a growing economy, US energy demand is projected to increase 32% from 1999 to 2020, reaching 127 quadrillion btu, assuming no changes in Federal laws and regulations.

But it said faster or slower economic growth, or use of energy-efficient and renewable energy sources, could change the forecast.

EIA's annual energy outlook noted that economic growth is a major determinant of both energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions. Its reference case assumes US gross domestic product (GDP) will grow at 3%/year from 1999 through 2020.

But it said if the economy grows 3.5%/year, the demand for energy in 2020 is projected to be 7% higher than the reference case level of 127 quadrillion btu, and projected carbon dioxide emissions increase by 152 million metric tons carbon equivalent, or 7%, in 2020, compared to the reference case.

It said if the economy grows 2.5%/year, energy demand is projected to be 6% lower in 2020 than in the reference case, and projected carbon dioxide emissions would be reduced by 125 million metric tons carbon equivalent, or 6%, in 2020.

EIA said in its reference case, the energy intensity of the US economy, measured as energy used per dollar of GDP, is projected to decline 1.6%/year through 2020 as more efficient energy-using technologies become available and penetrate the market. In a high technology case, more rapid improvement in the cost and efficiencies of advanced technologies and in their adoption than assumed in the reference case is projected to lower energy demand by 6% and carbon dioxide emissions by 166 million tonnes carbon equivalent, or 8%, in 2020, relative to the reference case

It said technology could also develop at a slower rate than in the reference case. Assuming that the efficiencies of energy-using technologies do not change from those available today increases projected energy demand by 5% and carbon dioxide emissions by 116 million tonnes carbon equivalent, or 6%, in 2020.

EIA said its reference case reflects legislation in eight states to ban or limit the use of methyl tertiary butyl ether in reformulated gasoline. In an alternative case, it assumed MTBE and other ethers would be banned throughout the US with a waiver of the 2% oxygen requirement. It said that would raise gasoline prices 3 to 4�/gal (1999 dollars) in the 2004 to 2006 period, compared to the reference case.

It said the reference case assumes technology improvements in oil and natural as exploration and production that lower costs and improve finding and success rates. Alternative cases that assume more rapid and slower technology improvements than in the reference case show the impact on projected gas prices. In the reference case, projected gas prices decline from more than $5/Mcf in 2000 to $3.13/Mcf in 2020 (1999 dollars). In 2020, prices are projected to range from $4.23/Mcf in the slow technology case to $2.50 in the rapid technology case.

EIA said natural gas projections also are highly sensitive to the assumptions for the domestic resource base. Gas prices in 2020 are projected to reach $2.62/Mcf in a high oil and gas resource case, which assumes 20% higher conventional resources and inferred reserves and 40% higher unconventional gas resources, and $4.53/Mcf in a low oil and gas resource case, which assumes 20 and 40% lower resources, respectively.

In 2020, projected natural gas production ranges from 24.6 tcf to 30.4 tcf in the low and high resource cases, compared to 29 tcf in the reference case. In 2020, crude oil production is projected to range from 4.6 to 5.5 million b/d in the same resource cases, compared to 5.1 million b/d in the reference case.

Related Articles

US Forest Service takes no stance on fracturing in national forest

12/12/2014

The US Forest Service has dropped a proposal that would have banned hydraulic fracturing in the George Washington National Forest.

Frac ban exemption made in Broomfield

12/12/2014 A Colorado District Court judge has ruled that a hydraulic fracturing ban in Broomfield, Colo., does not apply to an operator that entered into an ...

OSHA seeks to limit silica exposure for oil workers, Proposed rules target frac sand mining, fracturing

12/12/2014 The rapid growth in oil and gas production from shale and tight oil formations in the US is generating a boom in a related industry: frac sand. San...

Study links methane contamination in water wells to poor well construction-not fracing-in Marcellus

12/12/2014 A new study found that fugitive gas contamination at eight clusters of water wells in the Marcellus and Barnett shale regions might be linked to we...

Weak crude prices could threaten Bakken production growth

12/12/2014 Bakken shale production set another record in August, but weakening crude prices and flaring reduction efforts threatened to temper production grow...

Husky reports start of steam operations at Sunrise oil sands project

12/12/2014

Husky Energy, Calgary, reported the start of steam operations at the in situ Sunrise Oil Sands Project in northeastern Alberta.

TAEP: TPI still peaking, but ‘contraction unavoidable’ as oil prices fall

12/12/2014 The Texas Petro Index (TPI), a composite index based on a comprehensive group of upstream economic indicators released by the Texas Alliance of Ene...

US needs more data before ending crude export ban, House panel told

12/11/2014 Much more environmental impact information is needed before the US can reasonably remove crude oil export limits, a witness told a House Energy and...

BOEM raises offshore oil spill liability limit to $134 million

12/11/2014 The US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management increased the liability limit for oil-spill related damages from offshore operations to $134 million from ...

White Papers

AVEVA NET Accesses and Manages the Digital Asset

Global demand for new process plants, power plants and infrastructure is increasing steadily with the ...
Sponsored by

AVEVA’s Approach for the Digital Asset

To meet the requirements for leaner project execution and more efficient operations while transferring...
Sponsored by

Diversification - the technology aspects

In tough times, businesses seek to diversify into adjacent markets or to apply their skills and resour...
Sponsored by

Engineering & Design for Lean Construction

Modern marketing rhetoric claims that, in order to cut out expensive costs and reduce risks during the...
Sponsored by

Object Lessons - Why control of engineering design at the object level is essential for efficient project execution

Whatever the task, there is usually only one way to do it right and many more to do it wrong. In the c...
Sponsored by

Plant Design for Lean Construction - at your fingertips

One area which can provide improvements to the adoption of Lean principles is the application of mobil...
Sponsored by

How to Keep Your Mud System Vibrator Hose from Getting Hammered to Death

To prevent the vibrating hoses on your oilfield mud circulation systems from failing, you must examine...
Sponsored by

Duty of Care

Good corporate social responsibility means implementing effective workplace health and safety measures...
Sponsored by

Available Webcasts


On Demand

Optimizing your asset management practices to mitigate the effects of a down market

Thu, Dec 11, 2014

The oil and gas market is in constant flux, and as the price of BOE (Barrel of Oil Equivalent) goes down it is increasingly important to optimize your asset management strategy to stay afloat.  Attend this webinar to learn how developing a solid asset management plan can help your company mitigate costs in any market.

register:WEBCAST


Parylene Conformal Coatings for the Oil & Gas Industry

Thu, Nov 20, 2014

In this concise 30-minute webinar, participants have an opportunity to learn more about how Parylene coatings are applied, their features, and the value they add to devices and components.

register:WEBCAST


Utilizing Predictive Analytics to Optimize Productivity in Oil & Gas Operations

Tue, Nov 18, 2014

Join IBM on Tuesday, November 18 @ 1pm CST to explore how Predictive Analytics can help your organization maximize productivity, operational performance & associated processes to drive enterprise wide productivity and profitability.

register:WEBCAST


US HYDROCARBON EXPORTS Part 3 — LNG

Fri, Nov 14, 2014

US LNG Exports, the third in a trilogy of webcasts focusing on the broad topic of US Hydrocarbon Exports.

A discussion of the problems and potential for the export of US-produced liquefied natural gas.

These and other topics will be discussed, with the latest thoughts on U.S. LNG export policy.

register:WEBCAST


Careers at TOTAL

Careers at TOTAL - Videos

More than 600 job openings are now online, watch videos and learn more!

 

Click Here to Watch

Other Oil & Gas Industry Jobs

Search More Job Listings >>
Stay Connected